Almost half of registered voters would like President Trump to leave politics entirely if he loses the election, according to a new poll released on Election Day.
The Washington Examiner/YouGov poll found that 48% of respondents would like Trump to leave politics if he is defeated, while 17% want him to run for president again in 2024, and 18% prefer he leave politics and back candidates who share his views. Another 7% chose “something else,” and 10% didn’t know.
Trump has a massive Twitter following and frequently commented on politics and current events before he became a candidate for the presidency in 2015. He remains a big draw on the campaign trail. If he loses, he would be eligible to run again for a single term under the 22nd Amendment.
[PREDICT TUESDAY’S WINNER WITH THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP]
Democrats overwhelmingly want Trump to leave politics entirely, with 77% saying so to just 3% who say he should run for president again. Independents are more split, with a 47% plurality wanting him to leave politics, to 15% who prefer he would run again, and 14% who say he should leave politics but remain supportive of like-minded politicians.
Republicans are least likely to want Trump to go, with 38% saying he should run for president again and 34% saying he should leave politics but back new leaders who share his views. Just 9% want him to leave politics entirely.
Most voters are very or somewhat likely to accept the results if their preferred candidate loses by a large margin, with 65% saying so. Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to accept a large election loss, 63% and 64% respectively.
But the results get tighter if the election does too. The share of voters who say they are very or somewhat likely to accept the result of an election in which their candidate loses by a small margin drops to 48%, with 30% saying they are not very or not at all all likely to accept the results. Republicans are less likely to accept a narrow loss at 41% compared to 48% for the Democrats.
Due to the pandemic, there is a larger amount of early and mail-in voting than has ever been done before. Trump has repeatedly voiced skepticism about this process, and his campaign has filed lawsuits to stop states from counting additional ballots that come in after Election Day. Democrats have also expressed concern about postal service problems delaying vote counting and have alleged GOP voter suppression efforts.
There is a high likelihood that some battleground states will be slow to announce results, especially where officials are not allowed to begin counting the early votes before Election Day. The Trump vote is also expected to come disproportionately through in-person Election Day voting. And the courts may end up deciding contested questions about ballot-counting. All of the above factors are likely to create skepticism in some corners about a narrow loss.
Candidates declaring victory amid protracted counts will also generate scrutiny, as supporters of Democratic nominee Joe Biden have expressed concern that Trump will do so prematurely. “If the president wins on election night,” a Trump campaign official told reporters on a conference call, “he will say so.”
The poll also found a large majority of voters worry about the country fundamentally changing for the worse if their preferred candidate loses.
Some national polls show a large enough Biden lead to produce an unambiguous win. But the presidential contest is decided state-by-state in the Electoral College and the battleground state polls are closer, the scenario that resulted in Trump’s election in 2016.
The Washington Examiner/YouGov poll of 1,200 registered voters was conducted on Oct. 30 and has a margin of error of 3.8%.
