COLUMBUS, Ohio — A feud between Republican Party factions in suburban Ohio has created an opportunity to flip another deeply red House seat in a special election, but Democrats disagree about how to capitalize.
GOP primary voters may pick a nominee who alienates suburban centrist Republicans, putting Ohio’s 12th District within Democrats’ grasp. But they have remained split on strategy ever since the seat opened up when former Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi announced his resignation last year.
The Democratic primary in the 12th isn’t chaotic, or vicious, but it is competitive. It’s a microcosm of the national debate within the party about the kind of candidates it takes to win in once-Republican strongholds. Whoever wins on Tuesday will advance to the August general.
The two frontrunners, former Sheriff Zach Scott and Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor, are “very different types of Democrats,” Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., told the Washington Examiner.
“Voters have to decide which type of Democrat they want,” said Bustos, who runs Midwest engagement for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
O’Connor, the establishment favorite, is backed by Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and former Gov. Ted Strickland. Touting his experience in local government, O’Connor is pushing a “message of pragmatism” that doesn’t sacrifice his “progressive values.” Scott, a centrist, who says he owns more than 15 guns, is betting on his law enforcement record and labor background to pull in independents and disenchanted Republicans.
“[Candidates] don’t have to follow a litmus test in order to be a good Democrat,” said Bustos, “and I think it’s very important that we realize that as a party.”
O’Connor and Scott are the best positioned to advance to the general, both having strong name recognition across the district. But in a crowded primary, a dark horse candidate could emerge.
“Dems can win if it’s the right Dem,” Scott told the Washington Examiner. “If it’s the wrong Dem then it’ll be a waste of time.”
Scott has few allies in party establishment after waging very public battles with the local Democratic party in his failed re-election bid for sheriff and a run for mayor. He doesn’t hesitate to criticize his party, and wasn’t surprised when the state went for Trump.
“When you shift to all social issues and start prioritizing social issues over putting food on the table you are going to lose,” Scott said of Democrats’ messaging. “Trump saw that.”
When mulling whether to run for the seat, Scott said a discussion he had with a DCCC staffer during a visit to D.C. helped make his decision. The DCCC staffer told him “a liberal can’t win.”
“Well, I’m not a liberal,” Scott recalled saying.
Despite running to the right of O’Connor and the five other Democratic candidates, Scott has taken some party-line positions, including supporting legal status for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival program and stricter background checks on gun purchases.
“I’m not beholden to a party, I’m beholden to the 12th,” he boasted.
O’Connor’s taking a different route, backing progressive policies and promising voters he’ll protect Social Security and Medicare from Republican leaders.
“We have to look to experience because the last time we elected someone who never held elected office over someone who had experience we elected Donald Trump president over Hillary Clinton,” O’Connor said during a candidate debate in March.
Throughout the debate, O’Connor repeatedly pointed to his deep support among Columbus-area Democrats, and leaders in the party. He stressed that he’d reject the “divisiveness” permeating through Washington if elected.
He didn’t respond to multiple requests for an interview.
O’Connor has outraised the field and appears poised to win, but in a seven-candidate primary there’s room for an upset. Grassroots favorite John Russell made a name for himself in the community as a progressive advocate who helped launch an Indivisible chapter after Trump’s win. Indivisible is a national anti-Trump group created in response to the 2016 election. Russell’s ties to progressives could pull liberal votes away from O’Connor in the primary.
“I pay my bills by grinding tree stumps and farming produce,” Russell said. “That’s not your typical politician so I think a lot of people can relate to that and I view my path as going out there and winning back the folks who voted for Obama and who voted for Trump.”
Echoing Bernie Sanders’ 2016 platform, Russell backs single-payer healthcare, tuition-free college, and reversing Citizens United. He’s sworn off all corporate PAC contributions.
Where all three candidates align is their rejection of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., aware of the political vulnerabilities that accompany the California Democrat in Republican-leaning districts.
Scott said he “would not” vote for Pelosi when asked last week. “You tell me how does San Francisco relate to the 12th?”
O’Connor has called for “a change in leadership on both sides of the aisle.” Russell said he wouldn’t vote for Pelosi because the party needs “to make a break with corporate money.”
It makes sense to call for new leadership in a district as red as the 12th. Half of the population lives in three counties — Delaware, Licking, and Morrow — that haven’t gone blue in decades.
“None of them have voted Democratic for president since at least 1964, and Delaware hasn’t voted Democratic since 1916, the longest Republican-voting streak of any county in Ohio,” Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote in March.
But after the Arizona special election last month where the Democrat lost by just five points in a district Trump won by 21 points, Kondik thinks the 12th District will be “extremely competitive.” The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race to a “toss up.”
Democrats here are looking across the border to suburban Pittsburgh as a guide for how to win a Republican seat. Democrat Connor Lamb, D-Pa., won a special election in Western Pennsylvania in March that flipped a long-time Republican seat and stunned the political world, without focusing heavily on President Trump. Outside of northern Columbus, there’s little anti-Trump sentiment in the district. The Ohio 12th stretches up into the affluent suburban Delaware county, to rural areas reeling from lost manufacturing jobs. As the Republican candidates brutally attack each other in a rush to the Right, the Democrats are appealing to independents and Republican voters who feel abandoned by their party.
The politics are complicated in Ohio. The state supported Barack Obama in back-to-back presidential elections, but went for President Trump by eight points in 2016. Frustration with Washington gridlock could be a boon to Democrats in a year when Republicans control government and President Trump suffers from dismal popularity ratings.
But to win in the general, the Democratic candidate can’t be a referendum on Trump, said David Pepper, chair of the Ohio Democratic Party.
“Our candidates need to realize they have to win over independents, they have to win over some moderate Republicans, who as John Kasich said the other day ‘think their party has left them,’” Pepper said.
Based on early voting numbers the strategy appears to be working. In Ohio, party registration is based on which ballot a voter selects when they go to the polls. As of last week, 577 registered Republicans became Democrats by selecting the Democratic ballot compared to 100 Democrats becoming Republicans. An additional 2,584 previously independent voters requested Democratic ballots in Franklin county, according to the Columbus Dispatch. In contrast, 841 unaffiliated voters became Republicans.
It’s an early sign of Democratic momentum in the district, but Pepper cautioned candidates to remember that Democrats are the “underdog” in the race and can’t chase red meat like the ongoing Russia probe.
“Don’t get caught up talking about what’s going on Washington every day, or the Mueller investigation, or Trump tweets,” Pepper said. “It’s about going back to basics.”
