MONTICIELLO, Iowa — As Republicans eye a narrow path to keep hold of the House, they’re counting on Rep. Rod Blum to rise from the political dead with less than a week to go before the midterm election.
Blum, an Iowa Republican, sits in one of the top battleground districts in the country and is in his third straight tough contest, closer than many believed it would be as recently as September. At the time, Blum trailed by double digits and Democrats canceled ad reservations in the district, with the race seemingly moving in the direction of Democrat Abby Finkenauer.
Since then, however, the DCCC re-engaged in the district and Blum got some air support from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, after internal polling showed the race to be within the margin of error. One CLF poll showed Blum leading by 4 points.
“I don’t know how many times we have to do this before people believe. … We shake our head,” Blum said in an interview shortly after speaking at the Jones County Fall Dinner. “We moved the needle from 12 down to tied without a dollar from Washington D.C. That’s just on our own.”
National Republicans are amazed with the movement in Blum’s race, giving them confidence that he could hold the seat for the GOP. One Republican strategist involved in House contests even compared him to Lazarus for his ability to make it a race.
“He’s back,” said House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. “A couple of months ago, he was down double digits and people were pulling out, and I went to him and said ‘I actually think this is good. Let’s reset the election, reset the race and get people out of there where you can.’”
“He’s worked hard in his district. Much like last election, people thought he couldn’t win and he proved them all wrong,” McCarthy said. “He’s just kept doing his job. We came back in and did a poll, exactly what we thought: he’s back as tied. [We] came back into the race … People took the emotion out and looked at what he’s doing.”
Blum, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, expects to be outspent 7-1 in the race overall, mostly due to Finkenauer’s fundraising prowess. Between the third fundraising quarter and the first half of October, Finkenauer raised over $2 million, dwarfing Blum’s total during that time by nearly $1.3 million.
Outside groups have also made a play here. CLF made a $678,000 reservation in mid-October, while the House Democratic campaign arm has spent $250,000. The House Majority PAC has dropped an additional $200,000 in Iowa’s First Congressional District.
Blum has been an consistent backer of President Trump and even compares himself to the former real estate mogul, noting that neither are career politicians.
“The president is an outlier,” he said. “I always say ‘folks, not liar, [an] outlier.’ He’s a career business guy, and he’s not a career politician. I always say I’m a lot like him — without the Twitter account and without an extra comma on net worth. But we’re business guys. He came to shake the place up, and he’s doing it.”
Unlike most Freedom Caucus members, Blum sits in a perpetually tight district. He won his initial 2014 contest by 2 points and his 2016 re-election battle by nearly 8 points, with Democrats aiming to take him down both times.
Democrats are bullish this time around. One Democratic source still expects the seat to flip next week, pointing to the impact of taxes and healthcare in the district — two issues Blum admits were not political winners for him.
“I said to my staff in DC…when I voted for the tax cut and when I voted for the healthcare bill, I said, ‘My life will be a lot easier if I vote no on these two,'” Blum said.
Nevertheless, Blum continues to defend the two votes, arguing specifically that the GOP tax law passed in December has been beneficial.
The Iowa Republican also says that tariffs have not hurt him despite much consternation earlier in the year as many farmers in his district have given Trump leeway to improve trade agreements despite the impact on soybeans. When pressed at an event with Sen. Chuck Grassley on Friday by one farmer who wondered whether to store or sell his crop, Blum said that a deal is likely in the offing with the Chinese.
“The future looks bright. It’s just a little tough at this moment,” he said, adding that he believes a deal will be struck with China in the next six months as they burn through soybeans.
Republicans also point to Blum’s work on local issues, including his efforts to pass funding for a flood wall in Cedar Rapids in July. The president also praised Blum for his work to attain the funding in a tweet this week. Republicans hope moves of this kind could help propel him to a third straight unlikely victory.
“The amount of epitaphs written for Rod Blum’s political career could fill up the obituary section of a large newspaper,” said Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa GOP. “And guess what? They were all wrong.”
Republicans currently hold a 23-seat advantage, but a number of seats they are banking on are considered “Lean Democratic,” including Blum’s district and seats held by Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., and Rep. Erik Paulsen, R-Minn.
“[Democrats] made a mistake,” Grassley said in an interview. “He was No. 3 last year for Democrats [of Republicans] that ought to be defeated, and they didn’t defeat him, so they raise him to No. 1.”
“So when he gets re-elected this time, when the next time is up, where are they going to go above No. 1?” Grassley said. “Do they have a number zero? He’s going to be zero on the list to get next time.”
