Democrats learned the hard way 10 years ago that elections leading up to a decennial census aren’t just about the White House.
Democratic state parties are jostling for power in their legislatures so they can exert some influence on the congressional and local redistricting process set to take place in 2021 after the 2020 census.
Doing so can help them tip congressional contests in their favor or secure control of their statehouses until the next decade’s headcount when it’s constitutionally mandated that district maps be redrawn. If they don’t have independent redistricting commissions, that is.
Redistricting is on the minds of political insiders, according to the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center director Barry Burden.
Statehouses are responsible for configuring congressional districts in 31 states and state legislative districts in 30, the Brennan Justice Center found in 2019.
After seizing Virginia’s Statehouse last year, Democrats are hoping to make similar inroads in Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas this November, all of which task lawmakers with drafting the new maps.
“Texas is one of the states where Democrats think they have a chance of winning a majority, if not in both chambers then at least in one chamber to deny Republicans the ability to completely control the drawing of the next set of district lines,” Burden said in an interview.
The Wisconsin-Madison Election Administration Project’s co-founder added, “Other states are within striking distance too, but Texas has bigger national implications because of the large number of congressional seats there.”
Polling suggests a tight head-to-head matchup in Texas between President Trump and presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Biden trails Trump by an average of 0.2 percentage points by RealClearPolitics‘s count and 0.3 points per FiveThirtyEight.
But Democrats have more of an edge down-ballot.
Surveys, such as this month’s University of Texas at Tyler study, indicate 52% of respondents would support a Democratic candidate in their district, while 48% would do the same for a Republican contender.
Democrats need to gain nine seats to flip the Texas House. In 2018, they added 12 seats to their ledger, with another 17 that only just fell into Republican hands, and as many as 22 are at risk.
Yet, Republican strategist Derek Ryan was confused about why redistricting had become a Texas Democrat talking point since the GOP would likely hold onto the Senate, and they had Gov. Greg Abbott until at least 2021.
“If a map isn’t approved by the legislature, drawing maps becomes the responsibility of the Legislative Redistricting Board,” he said.
Ryan explained the board was comprised of a Republican lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner. The only Democratic member would be the House speaker if the party took the chamber.
“So the likelihood is that maps would still favor Republicans,” he countered.
Even earning a seat at the redistricting table, which is “crucial for long-term viability,” will be a mammoth, expensive undertaking, Democratic strategist Matt Angle told the Washington Examiner.
“The real question in Texas is not whether the opportunity for Democrats to win the statehouse and compete statewide exists. It clearly does. The question is whether sufficient funding will be made available to the right campaigns and organizations to make good on the opportunity,” he said.
Angle emphasized how Texas races were more costly at every level compared to other states.
“In-state donors must shed the memory of past bad experiences and be willing to fund local candidates and responsible Democratic organizations,” he said. “National groups must be willing to invest in races that drive Texas-based messaging and not bring into the state national messaging that gives the Republicans a target and a chance to re-grip.”
The U.S. Census Bureau was supposed to deliver data to state redistricting officials by March 31, 2021, so some maps could be finalized by the end of next summer. But amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the bureau asked Congress for a rare four-month extension, pushing the deadline back until July 31 at the latest.
The delay specifically affects New Jersey and Virginia, which host elections in 2021 and have primaries scheduled for June. Issues may be circumvented if data is released on a rolling basis as it has in the past.
New Jersey lawmakers last week proposed a state constitutional amendment to reuse its 2011 district map before rearranging it for 2023 unless it gets its census data by Feb. 15. Virginia can ask a federal district court to allow it to rely on its old markings like it did in 1981 in Cosner v. Dalton.
