President Joe Biden took a victory lap on Saturday after signing into law the first major gun control legislation since 1994. He’ll now hope the bill can turn around his sagging presidency.
Though the bill is modest and falls far short of Biden’s initial goals, its relative bipartisan support and the fact that it ends a 28-year drought will give Democrats another win to tout this fall as the party seeks to avoid a midterm wipeout.
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“Biden will do well by this bill, I think the Democrats should do well by it, but I believe there are still a lot of people in a lot of places that are still quite concerned about gun violence,” said Democratic strategist Michael Stratton. “This will be helpful to Biden, but this is not the last chapter in this issue.”
Biden signed the bipartisan gun legislation into law Saturday, with the federal government restricting firearms, even as the Supreme Court moves in the opposite direction.
During the signing ceremony, the president acknowledged the bill was watered down from his more ambitious goals, with some questions, such as a ban on “assault weapons,” left unanswered. Nevertheless, he championed the legislation, saying the bill “saves lives.”
“This bill doesn’t do everything I want but includes actions I’ve long called for that save lives,” Biden said before the signing.
Passed in the wake of mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act passed the House of Representatives on Friday by a vote of 234-193, with 14 Republicans joining every Democrat. The measure passed the Senate in a 66-33 vote, with 15 Republican senators approving the bill.
Along with the bounce Biden may get from the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, the president hopes the gun control bill can help turn around his approval numbers, which have dipped below 40%, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight polling averages.
Biden did not hesitate to underscore the electoral repercussions of the Supreme Court’s decision on November’s midterm cycle, saying the same day it was announced that “this fall, Roe is on the ballot. Personal freedoms are on the ballot.”
Less than 24 hours later, he signed the gun rights legislation into law before leaving for a trip to Europe, giving his supporters and his party two major talking points heading into the fall.
But the impact of the two may prove less than compelling, argues Republican strategist David Carney.
“It’s going to have no impact in November,” he said. “The [gun control bill] is nothing like what he initially talked about. The Republicans ran roughshod over the Democrats during negotiations because they were so desperate to pass something … Ultimately, because of the economy and because of the deep hole that he’s in, Biden and the Democrats don’t have a clue.”
Carney thinks the gun control measures are too modest to make an impact, especially with inflation so high, while the abortion issue will fire up partisans on both sides of the issue but may not drive moderates to the polls, especially if protests begin to turn violent.
“The greatest thing going for the right-of-center folks is that the Left’s first, second, and third reaction to this stuff is to turn to violence,” he said. “That’s untenable for most voters in the middle.”
Gun control has failed the Democrats before. The party suffered historic losses in the 1994 elections after the assault weapons ban passed. Republicans scored their first House majority in 40 years, with gun owners playing a part.
The gun control moves from the elected branches of government also contrast with the Supreme Court, which recently struck down a New York concealed carry law, saying it was at odds with the Second Amendment. It remains to be seen whether the court will accept any challenges to the new law that may arise.
Biden also chose to sign the Safer Communities Act on a Saturday morning in a low-key ceremony, eschewing a midweek gathering with a larger crowd. Stratton said it was likely to show the urgency of getting the legislation passed while avoiding accusations of grandstanding with a big ceremony.
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Despite his struggles and low polling, Stratton thinks Biden can capitalize on the win and, eventually, turn around his presidency.
“Biden was dealt a very difficult hand when he came into office, and that hand has not improved much,” said Stratton. “I still very much believe that Biden is the right guy at the right time for what’s going on in the country.”
