With more than 20 candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination and congressional hopefuls actively putting together campaigns, it’s easy to forget there’s still an undecided House race from the 2018 midterm cycle.
The protracted fight for North Carolina’s Republican-leaning 9th Congressional District is set to be settled on Sept. 10 after the Tar Heel State’s Board of Elections earlier this year ordered a special election. The decision to have constituents recast their ballots was triggered by an investigation into 2018 GOP nominee Mark Harris. The original victor by less than 1,000 votes, Harris’ campaign consultant drew charges of voter fraud.
Despite President Trump winning the south-central North Carolina district by 12 points in 2016, Republican candidate Dan Bishop, 54, only has a 4-point advantage on Democratic contender Dan McCready, 35, according to a JMC poll released in May. Jeff Scott, a Libertarian, and Allen Smith, of the Green Party, are additionally in the running.
McCready’s been aggressive in his effort to flip the seat, out-fundraising and outspending his opponent. Bishop, previously a member of North Carolina’s House of Representatives, was elected to the state’s Senate last year. In a strategy memo shared with supporters this week, Colleen Martin, McCready’s campaign manager, acknowledged the battle would be “tough.”
“To win, we have to accomplish two major goals. First, we need to turn out as many Democrats as possible,” Martin wrote, touting the team’s field operation and online presence. “We also need to win over ‘swing’ voters. Because of Republican gerrymandering, our district is too red for turnout alone to win the race.”
Mac McCorkle, a former Democratic strategist who now teaches at Duke University, said there’s “no question” McCready is the underdog. McCorkle, however, explained the combination of “the damage the Republican brand has suffered” and the Democrat’s “background and message as a moderate who’s a businessman, military veteran, and family guy” had injected some uncertainty into the contest. The effect’s compounded by the unpredictable nature of special election turnout, he added.
“We’ll see whether the controversy that elicited the special election is a vehicle in favor of McCready,” McCorkle said. “I think there’s some feeling that some wrong was done, but Bishop wasn’t part of that. Bishop is conservative and supported the bathroom bills, which won’t play well in Charlotte, but Union County is the key — Union County is where Harris got his margin.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee has repeatedly targeted McCready ahead of Election Day, dubbing the Iraq War Marine Corps veteran “China Dan” for investing in a company that outsourced jobs to China. The campaign arm of the party has sought to pin the energy entrepreneur on his anti-Trump rhetoric, calling the president the “greatest threat to our constitution and our democracy of my lifetime,” and for his failure to call for the resignation of Mecklenburg County’s sheriff, who refuses to work with ICE.
Patrick Sebastian, a Republican consultant with Majority Strategies, said McCready will have a “harder” time than in 2018 given the expectation of heightened press scrutiny and the fact he’s facing a more “disciplined” rival.
“He’s attempting to portray himself as a consensus Democrat, but it’s only skin deep because of his more leftist positions on” health care, immigration and abortion, Sebastian told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing the importance of Mecklenburg County. “He’s in a tough spot because a lot of his money is coming from Democratic activists. I think it’s a mistake to run an anti-Trump campaign … He has no room for error, and he’s fighting an uphill battle.”
Other 116th Congress special elections include races to decide who will replace the late Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., who died in February. The contest for the heavily Republican 3rd Congressional District in North Carolina will take place on Sept. 10. The other pending special election is for the late Sen. John McCain’s seat in Arizona. The Republican, who died in 2018, was succeeded by Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., via gubernatorial appointment last year. She will remain in office until Nov. 3, 2020.
