Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine raised $6.3 million last year, dwarfing the $171,000 collected by Republican primary challenger Jim Renacci, a metric that looms larger for party insiders than internal polling showing the incumbent trailing by nearly 10 percentage points.
Renacci, 63, raised eyebrows in January with an internal campaign poll showing him topping DeWine, 75, by 8 points. The poll was conducted by Tony Fabrizio, pollster for Donald Trump — Renacci is running as the Trump candidate — and the survey results were similar to the former president’s margin of victory in Ohio in 2020. Republican insiders in the state are dubious.
A primary challenger with that kind of lead, positioning himself as the grassroots outsider taking on the entrenched establishment incumbent, should have raised more than $149,000 during the final six months of 2021, as Renacci’s year-end fundraising report revealed. Compare that, Renacci’s GOP doubters say, to DeWine, who raised $3.3 million from July 1 through Dec. 31.
“The smart money still thinks DeWine wins,” a senior Ohio Republican said Wednesday.
DeWine in the past year has found himself crosswise with Trump because he acknowledged that President Joe Biden won the 2020 election and dismissed the 45th president’s claims that the contest was stolen. In Ohio, DeWine has seen an erosion of support among grassroots Republicans, partly because of the aggressive policies his administration implemented to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic.
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That dynamic and recent developments, plus the aforementioned polling, is fueling optimism inside Team Renacci that an upset in Ohio’s May 3 primary is afoot. Renacci, a former congressman who lost his bid for Senate in 2018, beat out DeWine for the endorsement of the Clermont County Republican Party. Renacci is expected to win the backing of additional county parties with a history of bucking incumbents.
“This isn’t a Republican state or a [Democratic] state — it’s a Trump state,” said Renacci campaign spokesman Tom Weyand, highlighting yet another factor behind the challenger’s confidence that he will prevail.
The DeWine campaign declined to comment. Republican insiders in Ohio concede that the primary is competitive and speculate that the governor’s campaign has not attempted to debunk the Renacci poll with a survey of their own because the race is closer than his supporters would prefer. But they are putting their money on the incumbent for a few key reasons.
The apparent entry into the nominating contest of two additional DeWine challengers is poised to deprive Renacci of the straight head-to-head matchup he needs to win, multiple Republican strategists said. With farmer Joe Blystone and former state legislator Ron Hood on the GOP primary ballot, the anti-DeWine vote stands to be diluted to the governor’s benefit.
Then there is DeWine’s advantage in resources. Renacci was a wealthy self-made businessman before entering politics and is promising to spend millions of his personal fortune to finance his gubernatorial bid — except he said the same about his 2018 Senate campaign and never delivered. So while his year-end fundraising report shows $4.1 million in cash on hand, Ohio GOP insiders do not expect Renacci to spend it.
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If Trump endorsed the challenger, it would be “a game-changer in a really problematic way” for DeWine, a Republican strategist said. But few expect that to happen, in part because the former president was unhappy with how Renacci performed in 2018 when he lost to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
“The real potential for this race to turn into a barn burner was contingent on Renacci getting DeWine in a head-to-head,” a Republican operative in the Buckeye State said. “As filing closes, it appears Hood and Blystone getting into the race just isn’t going to leave a long enough runway for Renacci to get a plane in the air that can catch DeWine.”
