As J.D. Vance moves toward a 2022 Senate bid, top Ohio Republicans are raising doubts about the prospects of the bestselling author, whose memoir came to embody the white, working-class community that propelled Donald Trump to the presidency.
Vance, 36, has never sought political office. Ohio Republicans who have run that gauntlet are skeptical the polemicist and venture capitalist can take a punch and withstand the intense scrutiny that accompanies a Senate campaign. Veteran Republican strategists in the state also question whether GOP primary voters will buy Vance’s convenient conversion from Trump critic to “MAGA” cheerleader, without which his bid for the nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman is dead on arrival.
“Some may focus on, and question, whether Vance is ready for a leap into the political big leagues,” said Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist in Columbus. “The more obvious and perilous impediment to his running is he’s [taken] one too many direct potshots at Donald Trump.”
Ohio is the heart of Trump country; the former president won the Midwestern battleground in November by 8 percentage points. With Portman’s exit, the 2022 GOP Senate primary is shaping up to be downright brutal. Vance is already under attack, despite having yet to announce his candidacy. Would-be opponents are spotlighting Vance’s well-publicized opposition to Trump prior to undergoing what allies describe as an “evolution” regarding his assessment of the 45th president.
In tweets posted in 2016 and 2017, Vance described himself as “never Trump;” called Trump “an idiot;” said in one tweet that he “didn’t support” Trump; described himself in another as “not a Trump guy;” and said: “I loved @MittRomney’s anti-Trump screed.” The posts have since been scrubbed from Vance’s Twitter feed, although it is unclear if there was a political motive. Vance appears to periodically mass delete his tweets.
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Vance’s presumed Republican opponents have plenty more material to work with from statements and interviews he gave during the 2016 campaign and early in Trump’s presidency. That could be problematic. The popularity of Vance’s memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, made him a public figure. But he is relatively unknown among grassroots Republicans in Ohio. Being tagged anti-Trump would be a death knell, both with primary voters and the former president, whose endorsement could decide the race.
“J.D. Vance has an impressive background but has not really run for office, so like other new candidates, he will have to educate the electorate about his impressive background,” said Alex Triantafilou, Republican chairman of the Cincinnati-area Hamilton County GOP. Triantafilou is backing Senate candidate Jane Timken, a Trump ally and former state chairwoman of the Ohio Republican Party.
Vance declined to comment for this story.
But political allies emphasize that his transformation regarding his opinion of Trump was heartfelt and based on a gradual observation of the 45th president’s agenda and leadership, versus his impression from the campaign. The proof, they say, is in the group of friends and admirers Vance has collected from the Trump wing of the GOP: Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri; conservative activists Charlie Kirk and Ned Ryun; and Fox News host Tucker Carlson, among others.
“J.D. really took the time to understand what was happening in the White House, in the Trump administration, so I don’t know how it’s not authentic,” said a Republican ally of Vance’s in Ohio. “It’s been an evolution; it’s not been a light switch.”
Vance said Tuesday in an interview with conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt that he expects to make a final decision about mounting a 2022 Senate campaign by “early summer.” Perhaps to encourage him, supporters have launched a super PAC, Protect Ohio Values. The group was seeded with $10 million from wealthy Republican donor Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist, and received additional funding from GOP financiers Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer.
Super PACs cannot coordinate with a candidate’s campaign.
But the Vance super PAC could help him counter opponents’ attempt to poke holes in the compelling personal story he detailed in the autobiographical Hillbilly Elegy, adapted into a feature film by Netflix released last year. He was raised poor in working-class Ohio; joined the Marines and fought in Iraq; graduated from Ohio State University and Yale Law School; and now runs a venture capital firm in Cincinnati.
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But before Vance returned to Ohio, he spent several years living in California, where he worked for Thiel. That is the part of Vance’s personal story his opponents argue is the soft political underbelly of Vance’s all-American, rags to riches story. A Republican operative who supports a Vance rival recast his uplifting story this way: “You have an anti-Trump Californian trying to run as an Ohio MAGA supporter. It’s a big jump.”
Dave Myhal, a Republican strategist in Ohio and neutral in the Senate primary, said Vance’s super PAC “obviously makes him a factor” in the race. “But the jury is out on if that means contender or spoiler.”
