Amy Klobuchar’s strategy of waiting out her 2020 Democratic presidential rivals in Iowa may finally be paying off.
The Minnesota senator, 59, last weekend capped off her 25th trip to the first-in-the-nation caucus state, whose nominating contest is set for Feb. 3, visiting her 70th county during the three-day swing. By contrast, she has canvassed voters in New Hampshire 19 times.
While still averaging 2.6% of the vote nationwide, Klobuchar fairs better among likely Iowa caucus-goers, with an average of 5.3% support, according to RealClearPolitics data. Though those figures park her in fifth place, well behind former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, it is a stark improvement from when the second-tier candidate barely registered with respondents to polls conducted shortly after she announced her campaign during a February snowstorm.
“She’s spending a lot of time in Iowa. She’s connecting. She’s a neighbor, and neighbors normally do well. But the key thing is some people stay in, and they hurt themselves by staying in,” pollster John Zogby told the Washington Examiner. “Amy is actually helping herself by staying in. Her numbers are going up. She’s making a lot of sense. She’s one of two serious women left, and arguably the only one of the two who’s still gaining a little bit. In that sense then, she stands the chance of doing better than expected in Iowa, which keeps her around longer.”
For Zogby, Klobuchar’s track record of winning Republican areas in her home state was a boon for her candidacy as the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, collectively known as the “blue wall,” will likely swing the 2020 general election and they “beg” for a centrist standard-bearer. He added the former prosecutor, first elected to the Senate in 2006 and a graduate of Yale College and the University of Chicago Law School, has a “dark horse” status, which also is an advantage.
“We have a number of dynamics here. One is, will there be a downward spiral by some of the other candidates, and can there be an upward spiral for her?” he said. “Here’s one possible angle: that Biden and Michael Bloomberg end up beating each other’s brains out, and that Warren and Sanders end up beating each other’s brains out, and everybody gets into the act of beating Buttigieg’s brains out, and she’s above the fray.”
Klobuchar has experienced a groundswell behind her White House bid since October when she stopped being “Minnesota nice” and confronted Warren during the Ohio debate for refusing to admit “Medicare for all” would result in a middle-class tax hike and for implying her so-called “wealth tax” put her on higher moral ground than her competitors. The daughter of admitted alcoholic former Star Tribune columnist Jim Klobuchar followed up the tough talk during the Atlanta debate, calling out her opponents for trumpeting “bumper sticker” policies.
Bill Dauster, former deputy chief of staff to then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, chalked up Klobuchar’s traction to being “extremely hardworking, a smart strategist, entirely authentic, and great at working a room.”
Democratic strategist Nathan Ballard believed the Senate Judiciary Committee member, who received national attention for grilling Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings, could build on her momentum because there was “a thirst” for more centrist alternatives to Sanders and Warren. This thirst was exacerbated by the importance this cycle of voters who cast ballots for former President Barack Obama and then President Trump, Ballard told the Washington Examiner.
“They are in the center. They are not motivated necessarily by ideology. They want somebody who shares their values, and can get the job done,” he said. “And that’s what Klobuchar is banking on. And I think she’s also banking on the idea that, in Iowa and New Hampshire, the moderate candidates tend to do well year after year, and that could be her breakout moment,” he added, referring to the 2004 Democratic primary when Howard Dean stumbled in the opening contest, despite being the field’s longtime front-runner.
Ballard explained Klobuchar had history on her side, if she can continue to “raise money and get on TV,” because Democratic nominees trend toward the center-left of the political spectrum, even though more liberal contenders usually have “the most fervent followers who tend to make the most noise.” But the mother-of-one’s approach was not without risk, he warned.
“If she’s not one of the top finishers in Iowa, she should fold up her tent,” Ballard said.
