Republicans are better off keeping their political powder kegs dry until President Biden’s net approval rating drops a little further, some pollsters say.
Biden embarked on a victory lap of election battleground states this week to celebrate the passage of his $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending package. The idea behind Biden’s publicity tour is to shore up support for him and the deal ahead of the 2022 midterm elections cycle, which will be tough for Democrats if history is any guide.
But while Biden has a higher approval rating than former President Donald Trump, his popularity is parked below those of former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama. And both those presidents couldn’t sustain their approvals, with Bush failing to win reelection. There are early signs Biden could be headed in the same direction.
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For Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos, presidential approval ratings “can’t go anywhere but down from the first 100 days.”
“I think of it as a general downward trend in approval, or net approval, with an occasional spike up with policy initiatives,” Paleologos told the Washington Examiner, predicting Biden would receive a bump once his stimulus checks began arriving in eligible individuals’ bank accounts.
“The only exception is probably Trump, who started off underwater and remained underwater for his whole term,” he added.
Paleologos argued Republicans were hamstrung in scoring political points against Biden, at least for the moment, since his spending package polled well.
“It’s a losing battle to engage a president right out of the gate,” he said. “You don’t want to be the party of ‘no’ at the get-go, especially among independents. They’re independents because they’re not enrolled in either party, and they don’t like the shenanigans of partisan politics.”
The risk for Republicans is turning independents into Democratic-leaning voters with their mud-slinging. Republicans were better waiting until Biden’s net approval rating decreased more, creating “fertile ground” for criticism among independents, who are the presidential election tiebreakers, Paleologos explained.
“Some Republicans have begun to try and chop down the Biden tree little by little. But they’re only ax marks in the tree, they’re not taking the whole tree down,” he said.
On average, 54% of the public approves of Biden, while 41% disapproves of the job he’s doing as president, according to FiveThirtyEight. RealClearPolitics presents a similar picture, with 53% approving of Biden and 42% disapproving in its average of polls.
Biden’s approval rating as of March compares to those of Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan during their own first 100 days in office, Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin told the Washington Examiner. The quartet’s job rating ranged from 53-56%, Pew Research found. But Bush senior and Obama were both more popular by roughly 10 percentage points, their approval hovering around 63-64%. Trump, meanwhile, recorded a job rating of 44% shortly after he moved into the White House.
“Bottom line: Biden is about where most presidents have been since 1980, though not as high as Obama or G.H.W. Bush, and higher than Trump, who holds the low reading,” Franklin summarized.
But there are flashing warning signs for Biden. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t capture “much movement, up or down,” in his approval rating, fluctuating between 53-54%, Franklin said. Yet Biden’s disapproval hasn’t been as steady.
“Disapproval has been rising to just over 40%,” Franklin continued, an increase from 36% in January. Biden’s lowest disapproval rating was 34% last month.
Obama’s approval rating dipped to 58% by Jan. 20, 2017. But the younger Bush is the best modern example of how far a president can plummet in popularity. The 43rd president left office with a job rating of 24%, down from 86% after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. To put Bush’s downfall in perspective, Trump moved out of the White House with 29% approval, according to the Pew Research Center.
Bush’s father had a similar wartime approval rating surge of 89% in March 1991, spiraling to 29% in August 1992 before he recovered to notch 56% by the time he left office. Bush, however, failed to secure a second term.
Reagan and Clinton appear to be early instances of partisan politics helping to salvage approval ratings. The pair survived scandals, the Iran-Contra and Monica Lewinsky affairs, respectively, to leave office with job ratings of 63% and 61%.
“What is striking is the far greater polarization we see for Trump and for Biden, with in-party approval very high but out-party very unforgiving, especially compared to earlier presidents,” Franklin said.
Biden’s public relations push seems to hinge on what Emerson College Polling Director Spencer Kimball suggested could be the “peak” of his presidency. “And if he is unable to live up to the expectations, his numbers might drop,” Kimball said.
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But Kimball cautioned Republicans they could be waiting a while until Biden’s approval rating lowered, given he won the popular vote and Electoral College just last fall after a deeply divisive president. And the upshot of Biden’s spending package is that it may stretch out his honeymoon compared to his predecessors.
“If the polls are correct about the popularity of the stimulus bill, he should be able to maintain those numbers for a longer period of time, which might allow attitudes to crystallize in his favor,” Kimball said.
