Republicans believe their luck in Nevada is poised to turn, viewing Tuesday’s primaries as the first step toward a fall sweep in their campaigns for Senate and the state’s four House seats.
Not since 2014 have Republicans experienced material success in Nevada, with Democrats getting the better of the GOP up and down the ballot in the three consecutive elections. That futility could end this November, GOP insiders insist, explaining a favorable political environment is on track to sink Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and topple Nevada’s three incumbent House Democrats.
But to fulfill their ambitions, Nevada Republicans must field quality general election candidates. That is no sure thing, although party strategists are claiming confidence in GOP primary voters to deliver.
“The main thing to look for, in a year in which, at least at this early date, looks good for Republicans: Will they nominate unelectable candidates in key races?” said Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada journalist and the founder of the Nevada Independent, a nonpartisan chronicler of state politics.
Nevada is a perennial battleground. But Republicans have taken their lumps there in the 21st century, last winning the state’s Electoral College votes in 2004. The last GOP Senate win was in 2012, when appointed Sen. Dean Heller earned a full six-year term. Rep. Mark Amodei has kept northern Nevada’s Republican-friendly 2nd Congressional District in GOP hands, as did Heller before him for about 4.5 years. Yet Republicans have been boxed out of southern Nevada’s three House seats since a Democratic sweep in 2016.
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Republicans believe this year is different, beginning with the Senate race.
In the GOP primary, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt is favored to defeat military combat veteran Sam Brown. Laxalt was endorsed by former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — and the Club for Growth, a GOP-aligned group stressing fiscal conservatism. Brown is running as the anti-establishment grassroots candidate. His team argues that victory is possible despite recent polling that suggests Laxalt is likely to win in a walk.
“As more and more Nevada Republicans are getting to know Sam Brown and his story, his favorability and support continue to rise. We’re seeing it in our numbers,” a Republican operative advising Brown’s campaign said, claiming the insurgent internal tracking polls show a toss-up race. “The grassroots energy and excitement is behind Sam Brown in the final days, and the Washington insider class is in for a surprise.”
The Laxalt campaign is dismissing Brown’s bravado, saying it is not based on the reality of what is actually happening. One veteran Republican operative in Nevada working on another statewide race lauded Brown for running a spirited campaign on track to perform better than initial predictions. But this operative agreed with the Laxalt campaign’s assessment of how the Senate primary would ultimately conclude.
“We are very strong heading into this primary and plan to carry that momentum into the general election, where we are confident that we will defeat the most vulnerable incumbent in the U.S. Senate,” Laxalt campaign spokesman John Burke said.
As a red wave develops that could sweep Democrats from power in Washington, D.C., and in states across the country, Republicans in Nevada are effectively predicting the incumbent Democrats representing Southern Nevada’s three Democratic-leaning House seats will get washed away with the tide. In part, Democrats only have themselves to blame, Republicans say. And they were not referring to President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings.
The new House seat boundaries approved by Democrats in Carson City, Nevada, in decennial redistricting continue to favor the Democratic Party. But Nevada Republicans say that the newly configured 1st, 3rd, and 4th Districts are more competitive than they otherwise might have been because Democrats diluted the partisan strength of some of them to try and make all of them more hospitable to their party.
That, combined with Biden’s political struggles, is making Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford, Susie Lee, and Dina Titus vulnerable. “Democrats overreached drawing the maps,” the veteran Nevada GOP operative said. The only possible obstacle that has Republicans concerned is whether primary voters on Tuesday will nominate quality candidates in these three districts. The GOP appears most concerned about their primary in the 4th District.
“Sam Peters would be a difficult person to get across the finish line,” a Republican strategist involved in House races said. Peters is a businessman and Air Force veteran who has been endorsed by conservative talk radio host Wayne Allen Root, musician Ted Nugent, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ).
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In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the GOP appears to be coalescing around Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Trump endorsed Lombardo, and the party’s traditional establishment, always concerned about electability, also prefers him. Heller, who attempted to revive his political career by seeking the Republican nomination for governor this year after losing reelection to the Senate in 2018, is expected to fall short.
The confidence Nevada Republicans have in Lombardo does not extend to their field of candidates in the GOP primaries for state attorney general and secretary of state. Even in the event of a red wave this November, Republicans believe Democrats might hold on to those offices.
