The Supreme Court nomination fight is uniting the Republican Party around President Trump ahead of November’s election like few issues could.
Not even impeachment could keep Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican and frequent Trump critic, in the fold. But there he was Tuesday, announcing he would support a vote on Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.
The Supreme Court nominations of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh earned the backing of many Never Trump conservatives who voted for third-party candidates like Evan McMullin in 2016. The Kavanaugh confirmation fight especially galvanized conservatives, even moving some of the disaffected into the Trump camp. It also solidified support for Republican Senate candidates in red states, allowing the party to expand its majority in the upper chamber in an otherwise discouraging midterm election.
Two years earlier, a candidate on Saturday eve, Trump rallied skeptical social conservatives by promising to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia with a similarly inclined judge. He even unveiled a list of his prospective picks who were vetted by conservative legal networks. Trump ended up winning a higher percentage of voters who cast their ballots based on the Supreme Court than Hillary Clinton, according to exit polls.
Democrats will be similarly motivated to keep a conservative out of the seat vacated by iconic liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on Friday at the age of 87 after a battle with cancer. Their efforts to sink the Trump nominee could also forge unity among Republicans, as they react to the bare-knuckled tactics likely to be employed to keep the seat open in the event that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beats Trump. Some Democrats are also threatening to expand the court, also known as court-packing, if a Trump appointee is confirmed.
“When Dems don’t like the hand they’re dealt, they always seem to either want another more favorable one or try to stack the deck,” said Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman. “Republicans are united in the POTUS filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court ASAP. Dems are causing Republicans to rise up, not only because of their opposition to filling the vacancy but also their threats to stack the court should Trump fill the vacancy and they win the White House and Senate.”
Trump is expected to announce Saturday evening his choice to succeed Ginsburg. He has said he is likely to pick a woman, and the front-runners are Judge Amy Coney Barrett and Judge Barbara Lagoa.
“They may not fit in with Justice Ginsburg’s legacy jurisprudentially,” said Carrie Severino, president of the conservative Judicial Crisis Network, who noted they are accomplished, principled women. “So they fit into that aspect of Justice Ginsburg’s legacy.”
Barrett would be expected to face hostile questions about her religious faith from Democrats who question her ability to uphold the separation of church and state. “The dogma lives loudly within you,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, memorably told her in a confirmation hearing for the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
“Their overreach will again come back to haunt them,” said Blakeman, a former adviser to President George W. Bush, who appointed two Supreme Court justices. “There is no better issue to unite Republicans than court appointments.”
The unity will not be quite unanimous, however. Two centrist Republicans trying to win Democratic crossover votes in blueish states will have a hard time siding with Trump on another conservative judge. Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican facing a tough reelection fight, is in this category. She said she will not support a nominee before the election. The same is true of Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, though, unlike Collins, he does not get a vote.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican who returned to the Senate in a general election after losing the GOP primary, has also expressed opposition to the chamber taking up a Trump nominee this year. But she did not rule out voting for the nominee. Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority and can afford three defections with Vice President Mike Pence’s tiebreaking vote.
But these are outliers in a party that largely looks favorably on Trump, seizing the opportunity to install a 6-3 conservative majority on the nation’s highest court.
“The Republican Party is uniting now more than ever to protect America from the radical Left‘s socialist agenda, and confirming President Trump’s third nominee will grow a conservative majority to protect America’s great promise of liberty and justice for all for decades to come,” said Jenna Ellis, a senior legal adviser to the Trump campaign.
