Iowa’s tightening Senate race is becoming a battle of two farm-raised women that is reflective of the challenge for Republicans across the Senate map.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, an Army National Guard veteran who shot to the political scene with a 2014 campaign ad that said she grew up castrating hogs on a farm and hoped to make Washington “squeal,” faces Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, a self-described “farm kid with farm kid values” who now runs a Des Moines-area real estate and development company.
A year ago, Ernst seemed to be in a relatively safe spot for election to a second Senate term. But now, polls indicate that the race is neck-and-neck, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Greenfield having about 45% support to Ernst’s 44.7% support.
Election forecasters at the Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” in late June. Inside Elections did the same in July.
It isn’t only the Iowa Senate race that has moved from being favored for Republicans into the “toss-up” category this summer. Races in Montana and Colorado made the same move. Arizona, previously rated to be “toss-up,” moved into the “lean Democratic” category.
The result: Democrats have a very good shot at flipping four to five Republican-held Senate seats and winning a slim Senate majority in 2020.
Christopher Larimer, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa, said that he believes the tightening of the race reflects “growing frustration within the electorate of the direction of the country under the current administration.”
“What has been interesting to watch is how Sen. Ernst is making a point of separating herself from the president on certain issues, notably ethanol and the renewable fuel standard as well as the renaming of military bases that are currently named for Confederate generals,” Larimer told the Washington Examiner.
The Trump administration issued waivers to oil refineries exempting them from infusing ethanol and biodiesel, reducing demand for Iowa corn. And in a break with Trump, Ernst said that renaming Confederate military bases is the “right thing to do.”
Part of Ernst’s challenge stems from Iowa tending to flip its support between parties for statewide offices. President Barack Obama won Iowa in 2012 by 5.8 percentage points, and Trump took the state in 2016 by nearly 9.5 percentage points. Ernst replaced Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, who retired in 2015.
“This race was always going to be a challenge for Sen. Ernst,” Larimer said. “A candidate’s first reelection bid tends to be competitive and for Sen. Ernst, unlike her initial campaign in 2014, she is running in a presidential year when turnout will be much higher, thus she is facing a slightly different electorate.”
Ernst has some bright spots in her race and a few tricks up her sleeve in an attempt to get back her edge in the race.
Last month, Ernst dinged Greenfield for skipping out on a small candidate forum that included only the incumbent senator and the two congressional candidates for Iowa’s 4th District seat. Ernst’s campaign spun it as Greenfield skipping out on the first Senate debate opportunity.
The incumbent Iowa senator also received a featured speaking slot at the virtual Republican National Convention, one of the few candidates in tight races to participate, a sign that she may be pinning her hopes on President Trump’s reelection chances. She praised Trump’s trade deals and his signing of an emergency declaration after a catastrophic derecho storm that damaged about a third of Iowa crops.
“Folks, this election is a choice between two very different paths,” Ernst said about the presidential race. “Freedom, prosperity, and economic growth under a Trump-Pence administration. Or the Biden-Harris path, paved by liberal coastal elites and radical environmentalists.”
As of June 30, Ernst had a financial edge over Greenfield. The most recent Federal Election Commission data available showed that Ernst had $9.1 million in her war chest and that Greenfield had $5.7 million.
