Two “Squad” members are on the defensive as they seek reelection for the first time.
Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan are two of four uber-liberal minority female lawmakers who gained national notoriety as President Trump’s political foils. Now, they’re fending off primary challengers in closer-than-expected races next month.
Their contests, while complicated by different forces, both threaten to break up the group, which also includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts. Ocasio-Cortez handily won her primary last month. Pressley is running unopposed in September.
An internal poll last week for Omar, 37, put her almost 40 percentage points ahead of Antone Melton-Meaux, roughly a month out from their Aug. 11 Minneapolis primary. But the attorney and mediator is outpacing the sitting House member in their dash for cash. A donations surge last quarter means Melton-Meaux had outraised Omar as of June 30. He has $2 million in the bank, compared to her $1.1 million.
Omar first won office two years ago, with a whopping 78% support from Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District. That outcome was the third-largest vote share racked up by a newly elected U.S. representative in the state’s history, according to Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota research fellow. It was the state’s highest for a candidate who competed against a major party opponent in the general election too, he added.
But Omar drew considerable criticism early on by expressing virulent hostility to Israel and statements that were overtly or implicitly anti-Semitic. There’s the string of rumors about her messy personal life as well, such as unfounded allegations she married her brother so he’d be eligible for a green card.
Yet calls for her to be “primaried” subsided somewhat after Trump told the Squad they should “go back” to where they came from. Omar, who was born in Somalia and moved to America at age 12, is a naturalized citizen.
Ostermeier said Trump’s attacks coalesced support behind Omar, “for some, begrudging.”
“Omar has nonetheless drawn an unusually large number of primary challengers,” the Smart Politics founder said of the four contenders. “In fact, it has been more than 85 years since the last time an incumbent U.S. representative from Minnesota faced as many.”
Ostermeier predicted Melton-Meaux would consolidate most of the anti-Omar vote, driving down her totals.
“She should still emerge with a clear majority. Outside money will likely not be enough to move voters in this district to vote against Omar, especially if that results in giving Trump what he wants — her defeat,” he said.
For Lawrence Jacobs, Ostermeier’s University of Minnesota colleague, Omar’s prospects for a second term hinge on how she deals with constituent complaints she’s neglected during the closing weeks of her campaign.
“For all of her notoriety, Omar’s test is over whether she paid enough attention to ‘minding the fences back home,'” Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance director said.
Meanwhile, Tlaib’s Aug. 4 bout is a rematch of the 2018 special election to replace the late Rep. John Conyers in their Detroit-anchored district and the 2018 general election five weeks later.
Tlaib, 43, jostled against Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones both times after Conyers resigned over sexual misconduct accusations at the height of the #MeToo movement. Jones clinched victory first before Tlaib got the upper hand for the longer stint in Washington, but with fewer than 1,000 votes and a more crowded field. All four of their former general election rivals have endorsed Jones.
Jonathan Hanson, of the University of Michigan, said an April poll had Tlaib in the lead, 43% to 34%. The Palestinian-American, whom with Omar were the first two Muslim women to win seats in Congress, also has a cash advantage. She has $1.3 million in her coffers, in contrast to Jones’s $17,000.
“Tlaib has recently been pointing out that Jones does not actually live in the district. Unclear what the impact will be on voters,” the public policy statistics lecturer said.
Matt Grossmann, director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said Tlaib’s overarching problem was that the state’s 13th District was heavily African American and Jones was black. That take overlooks Tlaib’s habit of making inflammatory remarks, whether vowing to impeach “motherf….r” Trump or encouraging Iowa Democrats to “boo” 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
“It has mostly been about racial and community representation, rather than national politics,” Grossmann said.
