House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., moved closer to reclaiming the speakership Wednesday, winning the House Democratic nomination for the top spot with support from 203 members of her caucus.
The final battle comes in January, when Pelosi will have to secure 218 votes on the floor of the House. If history is any guide, the California Democrat will find a way to get the votes.
In 2015, Pelosi lost 63 members in the private caucus but only four members on the floor a little more than a month later when she was elected House minority leader. On Wednesday, Pelosi lost 32 members.
Despite the math problem, the momentum is on her side and she’s wasting no time. Every moment not spent in caucus meetings on Wednesday, Pelosi worked members individually. Exiting the morning election for caucus chair, Pelosi walked up to one of her critics, Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, to discuss a sit-down the two planned for later in the day. Lynch, who joined with defectors vowing opposition on the floor, now appears on the brink of announcing support for the longtime Democratic leader.
Pelosi once again has a month to peel off other dissidents. Though 32 members voted against her in caucus, a number of them were freshmen expected to support her in January. Defectors claim 20 Democrats are ready to deny Pelosi the speakership on the floor, and if that’s so, she must convince three of them to change their minds to get to the 218 votes she needs, assuming no Republicans back her.
There are a few ways Pelosi can ultimately prevail. She can pick off three members outright either promising they’ll take the lead on a legislative priority of their choosing or give them a plum new committee post. She could pick off two members and have two more vote present, lowering the threshold for the votes needed on the floor. There are a number of ways for Pelosi to get to the gavel.
“Are there dissenters? Yes,” Pelosi said, speaking to reporters Wednesday afternoon following the vote. “But I expect to have a powerful vote as we go forward. Any other questions?”
Hinting that she may already have defectors in the bag who have not announced their about-face, Pelosi said she’s in “pretty good shape,” but, “I don’t want to make other people’s announcements for them.”
Hailed as a master vote-counter, Pelosi is deploying every tool in her arsenal to systematically take down the rebels determined to force her ouster. Ahead of the Wednesday vote on her nomination, she met with three of the members leading the group of defectors.
The meeting didn’t go well. As members cast their secret ballots for speaker, Rep. Kathleen Rice of New York fired off a statement accusing Pelosi of dismissing the concerns of dissenting members.
“We remain united behind our goal of new leadership and intend to vote against Leader Pelosi in caucus and on the floor of the House,” Rice said, adding later in a gaggle with reporters that Pelosi “does not have the ability to get 218 votes on the floor.”
Another Pelosi opponent, Oregon Democrat Kurt Schrader, echoed Rice but said Pelosi’s pressure campaign is in full force.
“She’s got a month to work on them, they’re pulling out at the stops,” said Schrader.
