New York Republican Rep. Peter King’s departure from Congress after 2020 means that 16 GOP House members are opting against seeking reelection, a slew of retirements that makes his party’s chances of winning back the majority more difficult.
King has represented the south shore of Long Island since 1993 and at times has been among the more centrist House Republicans. In 1998 he opposed impeachment of Democratic President Bill Clinton. But his district in Nassau and Suffolk counties is fertile political ground for House Democrats looking to expand the majority they won a year ago. It only has a slight Republican lean, and though it backed President Trump in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, Democratic presidential candidates have often secured more votes there.
King is among 16 House Republicans giving up their House seats voluntarily and not running for another office. That makes a considerable dent in the 197-member House Republican Conference, which needs to gain about 20 seats in the 2020 elections to gain a majority.
Additionally, two Republican members already departed office, triggering special elections. And four Republicans in 2020 are seeking other elected posts in their home states: Montana Rep. Greg Gianforte for governor, Alabama Rep. Bradley Byrne and Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall for the Senate, and California Rep. Paul Cook for the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors.
Just eight Democratic House members have announced their departures after this election cycle. Three more are seeking another elected office.
King said he was not retiring because he was unsure of his chances in the upcoming election cycle.
“Well, my situation is different from the others, perhaps. I would’ve retired anyway,” King told the Washington Examiner. “I expected to win this year. I expect the president to win. I can survive being in the minority. I’m not one of those guys that has to be in the majority. This was really a family issue.”
The former House Homeland Security Committee chairman said familial reasons weighed on him.
“My family moved to North Carolina and I’m going to stay in New York, but I’m just trying to work out travel,” he said. “So, after 28 years, it was time to go.”
House Democrats will make a run at a handful of districts incumbent Republicans are voluntarily leaving beyond.
Retiring Texas Rep. Will Hurd’s district has an R+1 Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, rating by the Cook Political Report, the lowest of any outgoing member in his party. King’s New York district has an R+3 PVI rating. The other departing Republican House members are in districts that Cook gives an R+9 PVI rating or higher. In retiring Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry’s Amarillo-based district, Trump in 2016 won with 80% of the vote.
When Trump was inaugurated, there were 241 House Republicans. Since that time, 100 announced they are leaving, lost in 2018, or plan to exit after 2020. That makes for a 40% drop, higher than the historical in a president’s first term, though not overwhelmingly so. In President Barack Obama’s first two years in office, 34% of House Democrats left for one reason or another, for a total of 88 members.
