President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency to build the wall at the southern border will be a powerful weapon in his arsenal as he seeks a second term, regardless of whether he is spurned by the courts or Congress, strategists say.
“As of right now, Trump is sort of running on three issues, one of which is the capitalism vs. socialism debate, late-term abortion, and then it’s border security,” Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “I think the national emergency sends the message ‘I am doing everything I can, I am not walking away from this issue no matter what, and you, the voters, need to help me complete it.’”
Trump announced in the Rose Garden last month he would be declaring a national emergency, which allows him to skirt Congress and redirect federal dollars for construction of the border wall.
The president had teased an emergency declaration initially during the 35-day partial government shutdown but stopped short of declaring one and instead urged Congress to reach an agreement on a border deal.
Lawmakers ultimately agreed to a spending bill that allocated $1.375 billion for Trump’s border wall. Rather than shut down federal agencies for a second time, the president opted to sign the legislation and then take unilateral action, including reallocating $3.6 billion from military construction funds under his emergency declaration.
Trump’s action was swiftly challenged in federal courts in the District of Columbia and California, and the president himself acknowledges that, if a case lands before the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, he will likely face defeat. However, the president is optimistic that the Supreme Court would rule in his favor.
[Related: Trump could win: Challenges to emergency declaration face high hurdles]
A protracted legal battle could be a boon for Trump, O’Connell said, as it keeps the issue of border security in the news in the lead-up to the 2020 election.
“The litigation allows him to simplify it — are you for border security or against border security?” he said. “What he’s trying to show is how much Democrats and some Republicans, the lengths they will go to try to stop him from doing what he sees as his constitutional duty, which is protecting the safety and security of the U.S. and its citizens.”
Declaring the national emergency is a win-win for Trump, even if the litigation is protracted and lower courts rule against him, said Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist.
“The national emergency, that gives him a tremendous weapon from a campaign perspective, because he can go out and say, ‘See, I tried to do everything I could for you,’” Siegfried told the Washington Examiner.
“If it’s the courts that rule against him, he blames the judges and says, ‘If it wasn’t for the activist judges,’ and he makes them the target of the ire. If it’s the Congress that overrides his veto, he turns and says, ‘See, this is what happens. We need to turn out in the midterms.’”
“From a base-energizing standpoint, it’s a big win,” he added.
A centerpiece of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign was his vow to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, one Mexico would pay for. The Republican-controlled Congress failed to provide Trump with money for a wall, and Democrats, who took control of the House in January, oppose the structure along the border.
Siegfried said that, for Trump to win a second term, the “most important lane” is his base, which the president needs to be “energized not only on steroids but a huge smattering of cocaine on a daily basis.”
“Trump’s biggest promise to his base was the wall, and he was unable to achieve it when he had both chambers of Congress. He was faced with an important decision: Does he risk having political blowback from his base by saying, ‘Alright, let’s move away from the wall,’ or does he try to show his base he tried to accomplish that big, shiny object he promised them?” Siegfried said. “From a political perspective, that’s what he has to do.”
Ron Bonjean, a longtime GOP strategist, said that over the course of his first term, Trump has cemented the need for strong border security as a theme of his presidency.
“But by the time we get closer to the election, we may be in a very different environment with different issue sets facing voters,” he told the Washington Examiner.
Declaring a national emergency and exercising his executive powers to build the wall also allows the president to emphasize other issues.
“He has cemented that he is pro-border security,” Bonjean said. “He’ll need to focus on other issues like the economy, foreign policy, and a variety of other public policy issues that people want to see addressed.”
