Sen. Lindsey Graham may hold a lead over his Democratic challenger in recent polls, but as the race tightens, election analysts say the South Carolina Senate race is no longer a sure win for the Republican Party.
On Monday, the Cook Political Report, considered the gold-standard election forecasters, moved its prediction from a “Likely Republican win” to “Lean Republican win.”
That change was based on the fact that Jaime Harrison, Graham’s opponent and the former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman, has raised virtually the same amount of money as Graham for two quarters in a row. By the end of June, Graham brought in $30.9 million, with Harrison closely behind at $29 million.
A Quinnipiac University poll taken from July 30 through Aug. 3 found the race nearly tied, with voters giving both candidates 44% support. A RealClearPolitics average of the polls shows Graham leading by 8 points, but the trend has slowly moved in Harrison’s favor. An internal survey for Harrison’s campaign found Graham leading by 2 points, with the Republican losing college-educated women by 19 points and suburban voters by 7 points.
A win by Harrison would prove a remarkable feat. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, but changing demographics in the state, namely an influx of college-educated professionals, has made it a more favorable ground for Democrats.
Harrison’s recent success is largely due to Graham suffering from low favorability in South Carolina, possibly resulting from the Republican’s continued support of President Trump and the GOP’s poor approval numbers when it comes to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump still comfortably beats former Vice President Joe Biden in a matchup, although by a significantly lower margin than his 16-point win in 2016. Recent surveys show Trump leading Biden by somewhere between 5 and 7 points. Republicans hope that Trump’s coattails can drag Graham across the finish line should the Senate race continue to tighten.
