The death of Rep. Don Young is poised to spark a competitive special election to succeed the long-serving Republican that will test Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system.
Republicans in GOP-leaning Alaska who had waited several years for Young to relinquish the state’s lone House seat are eyeing a bid in a special election expected this summer. Especially in a Republican-trending election year, the GOP should be favored. But some GOP insiders in Alaska are fretting about the possibility of a Democratic upset.
Alaska’s new voting law created an all-party primary, with the top four candidates advancing regardless of partisan affiliation, followed by a general election decided by ranked-choice voting. This system, plus intense interest in succeeding Young on the part of so many Republicans, could combine to create unusual political conditions favorable to Democrats.
“I would expect that the national Democrat machine will probably go into full action in the state of Alaska,” said Nick Begich, the only Republican who dared challenge Young in the GOP primary before the congressman died and who therefore already has a special election campaign up and running.
Speaking to the Washington Examiner on Monday, Begich conceded that the GOP has reason to worry about too many Republicans in the all-party primary, as it could boost Democrats if they coalesce behind a single formidable challenger. “There will be opportunists who will see this as some way to advance their own personal trajectory,” he said, moving to delegitimize any Republican opponents that might emerge.
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One Republican Begich does not have to look over his shoulder at is Senate contender Kelly Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Tshibaka’s top adviser, Republican strategist Tim Murtaugh, confirmed she is committed to running against incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and has no plans to switch to the House special. “Her mission all along has been to defeat Lisa Murkowski, and that’s what she’s going to do,” he said.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, is scheduled to hold a news conference Tuesday, likely to set a date for the special election. The all-party primary is expected for June, with the ranked-choice general election to follow in August, possibly the same day as the state’s regularly scheduled primary election. The governor is not permitted to delay the special general election until Nov. 8, the same day as the 2022 midterm elections.
Young died Friday at age 88 after serving nearly a half-century in Congress and becoming an Alaska institution. Over the years, several Republicans who worked for Young, and many who did not, waited in vain for the congressman to relinquish his at-large House seat so that they might have an opportunity to seek their party’s nomination — which usually means victory in the general election in a state that has voted GOP for president since 1968.
Begich was among the scores of Republicans who hitched their ride to Young. He even chaired the congressman’s 2020 reelection campaign. He simply grew impatient and decided not to wait for the congressman to leave Capitol Hill of his own accord. Interestingly, Young was elected to Congress in a 1973 special election held to replace Begich’s grandfather, Democrat Nick Begich, who died in a plane crash while in office.
In Alaska political circles, the younger Begich, 44, and married with a 10-year-old son, Nicholas, is known as the “Republican black sheep” of the virtually all-Democratic Begich family. Begich’s uncle, Mark Begich, is the former mayor of Anchorage and a former one-term senator, elected in 2008, a Democratic wave year. “This race isn’t about me,” Begich said. “From my perspective, the historical ramifications of this race are tertiary.”
Other Republicans viewed as potential special election contenders include state Sen. Josh Revak, who was co-chairman of Young’s 2022 reelection bid, and former government official Tara Sweeney. “There is lots of movement. We probably won’t have a clear picture for a week or two,” a Republican operative involved in House campaigns said. Young’s death could spark a flood of GOP candidates who simply would not have ever run against him.
“There are a lot of people who worked for him who thought they should inherit his seat in some fashion,” a Republican operative in Alaska said. “Now that he’s passed away, a lot of these people would be free to throw their hats in the ring.”
Under the old traditional closed primary system, that would not present too much of a problem for the GOP, especially with a red wave building across the country in response to deep disappointment with President Joe Biden’s leadership. But in 2020, even as Trump easily won Alaska’s three Electoral College votes, voters in the state approved an initiative creating a jungle primary and ranked-choice general election voting.
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Republicans have a clear advantage over Democrats in head-to-head statewide elections.
But Republicans fear, for example, that a general election field with three GOP candidates and one Democrat could pave the way for a Democratic victory under a ranked-choice system. Republicans say it could happen if Democrats coalesce behind an appealing centrist who attracts support from independents and soft GOP voters and if their party elevates flawed candidates who fight to outduel each other on the Right.
This special election will be Alaska’s first contest under the new voting system.
