The independent Michigan redistricting commission that was supposed to protect Democrats from Republican gerrymandering is poised to leave them worse off than if the state’s partisan politicians were redrawing congressional district boundaries the old-fashioned way.
At least four incumbent House Democrats with districts rooted in Detroit and its surrounding suburbs could see their 2022 reelection bids threatened by the map of reapportioned congressional and state legislative seats due Nov. 1 from the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. Ironically, Democrats might have more easily avoided the potential for such a disastrous outcome had the decennial redistricting process been left in the hands of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the Republican-controlled Michigan Legislature.
Democratic operatives monitoring the remap claim the 2020 census figures and population shifts should not jeopardize the party’s hold on House seats in the state if the commission draws the new boundaries fairly and is not unduly influenced by Republican insiders. Democrats say they have no regrets about Michigan’s move to a redistricting process run by an independent commission but concede that they are worried about the new map it might produce.
“Michigan is a competitive state, and a fair congressional map will reflect the slight Democratic lean of its voters as a whole. The map should also reflect the growing number of people of color who call Michigan home,” Kelly Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said Thursday in a statement.
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Democratic anxiety is not translating into GOP optimism.
Michigan’s population grew 2% since 2010, a meager increase that caused the state to lose a congressional seat in decennial redistricting. Republicans monitoring the process fret that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission could agree to new congressional lines that unfairly protect five, perhaps even six, House Democrats who might otherwise be in line to see their seats disappear, radically redrawn, or partially folded into a competing majority-Democratic district.
“I have a very serious concern about that,” said Tony Daunt, the executive director of FAIR Maps, a conservative group in Michigan focused on protecting GOP interests in the redistricting process. “The simple fact is the geographic distribution of people damages Democrats, and they’ve been trying to come up with a way to fix that for years.”
The Democratic incumbents who could be affected include Reps. Debbie Dingell, Andy Levin, Elissa Slotkin, and Rashida Tlaib and possibly Reps. Brenda Lawrence and Haley Stevens.
Gerrymandering (that is, a political party drawing congressional and legislative seats to suit its electoral interests) has a long bipartisan tradition in the United States. Lately, the Democratic base has rejected the practice, believing it has allowed Republicans to hold majorities in Congress and the state legislatures when there is otherwise not enough voter support in elections to produce such a result. It was that sentiment that drove the creation of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.
The panel is the brainchild of a liberal grassroots effort and was approved as a ballot initiative by Michigan voters in the 2018 midterm elections. The commission is made up of four Democrats, four Republicans, and five independents and appears to live up to the “citizens” aspect of its name, featuring one commissioner who is an aspiring orthopedic surgeon, another who is a real estate broker, and yet another who is a handyman.
But both sides are wary of the map they will produce.
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Democrats argue that Michigan lost population in the center of the state, where Republicans tend to enjoy strong support. Therefore, no fair redistricting should hurt Democrats in Michigan’s congressional delegation, even with the loss of a House seat.
Republicans contend that if the commission fulfills its mission to produce compact geographical districts that keep communities of interest intact, there is no way the new map will not cause problems for a cluster of Democratic incumbents who are based in Detroit and adjacent Oakland County.
Some political observers are predicting the matter will end up in court, with a judge playing cartographer and having the final word.
