‘A missed opportunity’: Nevada Democrats lament getting overlooked despite early caucus

Nevada will host the third nominating contest on Feb. 22, but the historically crowded field of more than a dozen White House hopefuls has invested more time and energy in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

“A reminder of the order of the early nominating contests: IA – Feb. 3, NH – Feb. 11, NV – Feb. 22, SC – Feb. 29,” Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, tweets almost daily.

Nevada’s caucuses are “a relatively new game” in presidential politics, said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. The state’s move to the beginning of the primary calendar started in 2008 at the urging of Manley’s old boss, then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, he told the Washington Examiner.

“It’s a missed opportunity. The reason why Senator Reid pushed hard for Nevada to get an early caucus is because it reflects the changing face of the country. It’s much more diverse than many of those other states, especially Iowa and New Hampshire,” Manley said, referring to Nevada’s growing Latino community. “There’s a rising Filipino population as well,” he added.

There was an emphasis on Nevada earlier in the 2020 cycle but, as the race nears Iowa and New Hampshire, candidates are deprioritizing Nevada’s roughly 40 delegates in a state whose caucus format and shift-based workforce present challenges for traditional campaign strategies, Manley said. Instead, they are banking on wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to build momentum going into Nevada and South Carolina.

Chris Wicker, a Reno lawyer who was a Nevada superdelegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention, blamed national press coverage for exacerbating the problem.

“My perception is that many media stories often discuss New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina without mentioning Nevada. I am not sure why, except that we are in the Far West and often ignored anyway. In the past, Senator Reid was able to keep us in the news,” Wicker said, noting Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders had drawn “very enthusiastic crowds” so far, while more centrist Democrats favored former Vice President Joe Biden.

For Andres Ramirez, a Las Vegas Democratic strategist, the complaints were relative because candidates were still spending more time in Nevada than in the past, highlighting issues important to voters in the state such as immigration, labor, human trafficking, and homelessness. He said Warren’s “machine” was “certainly” the most organized of all the contenders, “but things in presidential campaigns change rapidly,” pointing to how South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was ramping up his Nevada efforts.

“It’s hard to poll in Nevada for national pollsters because they’re not used to adapting to the norms of Nevada,” Ramirez told the Washington Examiner. “The overwhelming population, 80% of the population, lives in Clark County, which is Las Vegas, and our dominant industry is gaming and tourism. In most of America, pollsters call people between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. because that’s the prime time for reaching voters. But in Vegas, the most lucrative shift for workers is 3 p.m. to 11 p.m. The way you reach people is very different from other states, which is why a field team is so important.”

That being said, the Nevada Independent and Emerson College both released surveys last week in which Biden had a 10 percentage point and 8 percentage point advantage, respectively, on his closet rivals, Warren and Sanders.

“The Latino voter in Nevada is younger than the average voter and disproportionately Democratic. This leads to them favoring ‘Medicare for all’ as a healthcare policy. While the economy was their top issue like the general population, the environment ranked as their second most important issue,” Emerson College Polling’s Spencer Kimball found. “The vote for Latinos are generally split in the Democratic primary, with Warren taking 30%, Sanders 23%, and Biden at 22%, which, with a sample of 89, is a statistical tie. But it does show these three candidates lead amongst this group as the next closest candidate is at 7%, which is Tom Steyer.”

Over the past 35 years, the number of Nevada residents who identify as Latino has tripled, almost doubling since 2000 to about 865,000, according to Unidos U.S. and pollsters from Latino Decisions. Constituting roughly 30% of the population, Latinos are now the largest minority, approximately 212,000 of whom are registered to vote. The growth is interpreted as a built-in advantage for Democrats, contributing to the swing state becoming bluer.

Pollster John Zogby told the Washington Examiner it was difficult to assess which direction Latino Democrats would lean, only that they tended to coalesce behind more moderate options.

“That’s why I think Latinos in Nevada, as is the case with African Americans in South Carolina, will stick with Biden and the mainstream as long as Biden’s still in the mix,” he said. “Bernie certainly doesn’t have a claim to them. I honestly don’t know where Elizabeth Warren stands with them. And Pete Buttigieg is nowhere with nonwhites … I think it will break late, in particular, this time because there are just too many candidates out there.”

Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren will appear at this weekend’s “First in the West” event, alongside Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California, and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Former Reps. John Delaney of Maryland and Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania, as well as ex-Obama administration Housing Secretary Julián Castro, hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are also scheduled to speak.