A trade confrontation with China that spirals out of control and costs thousands of Americans their jobs still might not cost President Trump his, some Republicans say.
Trump enjoys broad political support, in concept, for cracking down on China’s unfair trade practices. Democrats have supported the policy for years. Republicans, though historically free traders, have backed getting tough with Beijing more generally on national security grounds.
And that support could hold — even through an escalation that undermines the economic vitality of thousands of communities and threatens to erase as many as 2 million jobs that rely significantly on trade with China.
“If there is a trade war, [voters] probably blame China,” said Saul Anuzis, a Republican operative in Michigan. “The Democrats will try and pin it on Trump, but most voters don’t understand economics as much as they understand who the bad guys are. China would not be tough to demonize.”
Trump rode a wave of protectionist sentiment, and resentment over the loss of industrial manufacturing to overseas competitors, to victory nearly 18 months ago. China was viewed as the chief culprit.
The president, then the GOP nominee, vowed to use tariffs as a mechanism to extract better deals from trade partners like China and lure jobs back to the United States. Voters in the Heartland, in traditional manufacturing hubs like Michigan that hadn’t voted Republican in decades, responded by electing Trump.
In practice, Trump’s campaign promise could cost those very voters their paychecks. This week, Beijing retaliated against Trump’s threat to slap steep tariffs on Chinese imports, absent better trade terms, with threats of their own, targeting more than 100 American products, including a range of automobiles.
And Thursday night Trump said he was considering tariffs on $150 billion worth of Chinese goods, not just the $50 he has already threatened, a move that was likely to prompt more retaliation from China.
Still, at least in the short term, voters who have hungered for action against China would probably give Trump latitude and allow time for him to negotiate a better deal.
“There is a strong desire among most people for Washington to stand up to China,” a veteran Republican operative said. “Fortunately for Trump, he’s always got a more unpopular foil to blame — Congress. So I am sure when this goes bad … he will blame Congress. And guess what, Republican voters are willing to believe him over [GOP congressional leaders] on most anything.”
A Brookings Institution analysis shared with the Washington Examiner revealed that a U.S.-China trade war would impact agriculture and manufacturing and could disproportionately cost working-class jobs in counties Trump carried in the 2016 election.
Of the 2,783 counties that would be affected, the president won 2,279 — compared to just 449 that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton. Nearly 1.1 million jobs in Trump country are tied to trade with China, and just under 1 million are situated in the Clinton counties.
Trump has tried to paint a showdown with China as no-lose for the U.S.
Pointing to the trade deficit with China, the president said the American economy is already losing, so adverse aftershocks that come from trying to rectify that wouldn’t leave the country any worse off. Besides, Trump has added, a trade is war both “easy” to win and unlikely to happen.
“For many years, no president wanted to go against China, economically. But we’re going to do it,” Trump said Thursday, during a swing through West Virginia to promote his economic agenda.
Voters might not punish Trump if a damaging trade war ensues. But Republicans in Congress, who unlike the president, are on the ballot this year, could pay the ultimate price.
House and Senate Republicans, running in the face of strong political headwinds, are staking their majorities on the $1.3 trillion tax overhaul they passed in December. Republicans are hoping to tie the tax bill to a growing economy to make the case for their re-election, even as voters lean toward the Democrats over their dissatisfaction with Trump.
That strategy is impossible if a trade war tanks the economy. Even if the U.S. and China stand down and reach a deal, the uncertainty of possible trade action could complicate the Republicans’ economic message and make voters anxious about he future.
In this case, even Trump might not emerge unscathed.
“It depends on the outcomes,” said Dave Carney, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire. “If there is no end in sight as pork producers, other farming related jobs, and manufacturing jobs which are based on exports start to be lost, the pain for the president will increase.”
