Reps. Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, and Eric Swalwell are struggling to make a dent in the crowded Democratic presidential primary field — and their White House ambitions may be jeopardizing their current jobs.
Each is garnering less than 1% support nationally in RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Moulton did not even make the first round of presidential primary debates next week because he came up short of the Democratic National Committee’s polling or donor qualifying thresholds. Some commentators have mocked the hopefuls for daring to run in a crowded presidential primary packed with senators, governors, and former Vice President Joe Biden. Not to mention that 1880 was the last time a sitting House member, Rep. James Garfield, R-Ohio, won the presidency.
“The ability to raise their stature to run for a Senate seat, let alone for the White House, is actually hugely problematic,” David McCuan, professor and chairman of the political science department at Sonoma State University, told the Washington Examiner. “And what this really becomes is some type of balance of their own House stature and the development of a national profile that doesn’t leave the folks back home hanging.”
In addition to public scrutiny during their presidential season, the 2020 hopefuls’ bids can haunt them down the road.
Former Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who sought the Republican presidential nomination 2012, faced repercussions following her White House bid. After coming in sixth place in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Bachman ended her presidential candidacy and was narrowly re-elected to her House seat later that year in a usually strongly Republican district. But in the wake of financial and ethics investigations into her presidential campaign, she decided against running in 2014, effectively ending her career in public service.
The more immediate concern is that the representatives could face primary challengers seeking their congressional seats, all of which lean Democratic.
Gabbard has until June 2020 to file reelection paperwork before the state’s August primary. If she does, she will face a primary challenge from Democratic Hawaii state Sen. Kai Kahele, who promises to focus on the district rather than national politics.
“She’s gonna be in trouble,” Kahele told Vice News recently. “It’s a different Hawaii than what she’s used to and I’m a completely different candidate than anything she’s ever faced.”
Gabbard in January did not rule out trying to stay in the House. “We’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” she told CNN. “I haven’t heard from Sen. Kahele, but whatever he decides to do, I wish him well.”
Potential and confirmed Moulton primary challengers in Massachusetts have already used his presidential bid as a line of attack. “We need to have someone who wants to stay here and represent the district,” said Jamie Zahlaway Belsito, a Salem State University trustee who has filed her paperwork to run for his seat.
Moulton spokesman Matt Corridoni said in April that Moulton will seek re-election if he does not win the Democratic presidential nomination. Moulton has plenty of time to announce his candidacy — the state’s filing deadline is in May 2020 ahead of the September primary.
In Swalwell’s Northern California district, Aisha Wahab, a progressive Afghan American Hayward city council member, is seeking his congressional seat. But she has said that she will reevaluate her candidacy if Swalwell decides to run for reelection.
Swalwell’s campaign directed the Washington Examiner to the congressman’s previous comments on a possible reelection bid.
“I’m running for president right now. Don’t have to make that decision until December,” Swalwell told The Hill earlier this month. “I hope to be part of the field as it shrinks. If I don’t, I’m going to be realistic about my options.”
Dec. 6 happens to be California’s deadline to file candidacy to appear on the March 3 primary ballot.
Ryan also must also file reelection paperwork in Ohio by mid-December to appear on the March primary ballot, but he does not yet face competition for his primary nomination. A spokesperson for Ryan told the Washington Examiner that he plans to run for reelection as well as for president.
State laws in Hawaii, Ohio, Massachusetts, and California appear to allow the four House members to seek the Democratic presidential nominations at the same time as seeing reelection to Congress, though the law is less clear in California — meaning that the candidates may not have to completely end their presidential bids if they decide to try to keep their seats.
McCuan noted that the late filing deadlines also give the four members of Congress room to “test the winds,” that they will have incumbent advantages in their races, and that whether their challengers can raise money and secure endorsements will be a major factor in those races.
The campaigns for Gabbard and Moulton did not respond to requests for comment.
