Democrats are once again hoping that an unprecedented influx of cash into a Republican stronghold can oust a high-profile Republican from the Senate — and this time, it’s looking more promising for Democrats than ever.
South Carolina Senate candidate Jaime Harrison, a 44-year-old longtime Democratic operative and lobbyist who is challenging incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham, announced jaw-dropping, record-breaking fundraising of $57 million in the third quarter of the year from June through September.
That fundraising haul blew past the previous three-month record for a Senate candidate, when Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke raised $80 million from June through September 2018 during his challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
Harrison’s fundraising prowess has clearly rattled Graham, whose race was not expected to be so high-profile or close.
During recent Fox News interviews, a regular occurrence for the nearly 18-year senator and eight-year House member before that, Graham took the unusual step of asking viewers to donate to his campaign. One Google campaign ad at the top of search results for Graham’s name read, “Sen. Graham Has Been Outraised — Please Make a $5 Donation.”
Graham has not yet reported his third-quarter fundraising haul. As of June 30, he had raised $29.2 million total for this election cycle and had $15 million in cash on hand.
O’Rourke’s fundraising haul could be a cautionary tale for Harrison. The El Paso, Texas, native was unsuccessful in his quest to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, losing by 2.6% — the closest statewide Texas race in 40 years. A few months later, riding high on glowing new profiles and support from celebrities, O’Rourke launched a presidential campaign, which was also unsuccessful.
Harrison, though, is in a much more promising position than O’Rourke was.
Cruz consistently polled ahead of O’Rourke in the run-up to the election, whereas recent polls find that the race between Harris and Graham is virtually tied.
A Sept. 24-28 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee-commissioned poll found Harrison at 48% and Graham at 47%, while a Sept. 23-28 Data for Progress poll found Harrison at 46% and Graham at 47%. A Sept. 23-27 Quinnipiac University poll found a dead heat, with Harrison and Graham each at 48%.
The dollar-to-voter ratio is also much better for Harrison. There are 3.5 million registered voters in South Carolina, compared to 15.8 million in Texas in 2018.
Harrison’s mountain of cash allowed him to start television ads boosting his own name recognition among voters, attack Graham early in April, and stay on the air.
That helped him make the race competitive. The Cook Political Report last week moved its rating for the South Carolina Senate race to a “toss-up.”
With just three weeks left until Election Day, the bulk of Harrison’s major haul is likely to be spent on advertising, as there is little time to spend money in other ways such as by hiring additional staff members, purchasing voter data and equipment, or adding campaign offices.
According to ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics, Harrison spent $19.6 million across broadcast, cable, digital, radio, and satellite platforms in September. Graham spent $7.2 million on ads over the same period. Harrison has already spent or placed $28.4 million in ad buys for the month of October through Election Day, compared to $9.8 million for Graham.
Some other campaign cash might be reserved for legal expenses relating to potential lawsuits about election results or the counting of ballots.
The question, though, is whether Harrison’s massive ad buys can push him to victory.
In an MSNBC interview on Monday, one questioner noted that Harrison’s massive cash advantage had not been enough to push him definitively ahead of Graham in the polls and asked Harrison what he planned to do in the last few weeks of the election.
Harrison gave a vague, polished answer that is typical of professional politicians, saying that he plans to focus on the issues.
“He’s being Mister Relevant in Washington, D.C.,” Harrison said of Graham. “I just want to be Mister Relevant in South Carolina.”
Some campaign moves from Harrison prompted national attention that can’t be bought.
Following President Trump’s positive coronavirus diagnosis, Harrison brought his own plexiglass shield to his first Harrison-Graham debate on Oct. 4. A second debate between the two candidates was canceled after Harrison blamed Graham for not taking a new coronavirus test.
