OXON HILL, Maryland — Democrats are confident the Supreme Court‘s decision to overturn the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade will help them with what has become a critical voter constituency in this November’s elections, Hispanic women.
But although Democrats are hopeful of a “Roe-vember” this midterm cycle, Republicans point to their own polling, which predicts more erosion in Democratic support among people of Hispanic or Latino descent.
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Top Democratic pollster Celinda Lake briefed the Democratic National Committee last week in Maryland on what she expects will be a backlash from Hispanic women and Latinas against Republicans over the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that overturned Roe. Lake described the demographic as an opportunity for her party, which holds an average 0.4-percentage-point advantage over Republicans in generic congressional ballot polling.
“Latinas are one of the groups that has moved the most since the overturn of Roe v. Wade,” Lake told the Washington Examiner on Monday. “They are more pro-choice, more motivated, and uniquely focused on the prohibition of birth control, which they believe is more likely.”
During the DNC’s summer meeting, Lake cited a June All In Together poll conducted with Emerson College. The survey demonstrates how young Hispanic women and Latinas are more motivated to vote and with a higher intensity than before the Roe decision was leaked in May and issued the following month, according to Lake. More than 70% of Hispanic women aged 18 to 29 told pollsters they are more interested in casting a ballot post-Roe, compared to 50% who answered the question hypothetically last September. That is slightly more than black (70%) and white (55%) women.
A Lake aide on Monday also referenced two Roe-centric polls released in July and August by Navigator, a favored White House source of data. Navigator similarly found that 69% of Hispanic women are more motivated to vote this fall post-Roe, in contrast to black (66%) and white (55%) women. She mentioned PRRI polling and the UnidosUS/Mi Familia Vota National Survey of Latino Voters too.
Republican strategist Cesar Conda downplayed Democrats’ Roe polling, contending the diverse universe of Hispanic voters is generally “aspirational” and “care about family values.” For the former chief of staff to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and SBA Pro-Life America executive committee member, they tend to be more socially conservative than the broader population based on Catholic connections.
“This is not to say that overturning Roe won’t have an impact in some races, but it’ll be limited to certain urban areas where voters lean pro-abortion anyway,” Conda said. “Inflation, crime, education, along with Biden’s historically dismal approval ratings, will continue [to] boost GOP support among Hispanics this fall.”
“Biden has made it clear that a pillar of his presidency is protecting abortion on demand until birth, a position the majority of Americans of all stripes disagree with,” he added.
The Republican National Committee remains adamant that its February Roe polling, by KAConsulting and the Tarrance Group, undermines Democrats’ argument. A “majority” of the public, including Hispanics, dispute Democrats’ “extreme taxpayer-funded abortion agenda,” according to RNC spokeswoman Nicole Morales.
“As a community, Hispanics value faith, family, and freedom, which all align with Republican ideals and values,” Morales said. “Democrats are out of touch and losing the support of the Hispanic community because of rising costs for gas and groceries and soft-on-crime policies.”
At the same time, many Republicans who campaigned on strict anti-abortion stances during their primaries appear to have softened their rhetoric before November’s elections. Additionally, momentum for state anti-abortion laws seems to have abated, as has that for a national ban.
DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison warned Republicans during his organization’s summer meeting, convened 60 days before the midterm cycle, that Roe-vember is coming.
“When Donald Trump won in 2016, we saw women take to the streets, and we were able to win back the House of Representatives because women then took that anger, they took that action, and they voted in 2018,” he said during the women’s caucus. “They think we’re going to go back? No!”
During her presentation, Lake advised Democrats not to depend solely on Roe but conceded abortion is “a major issue,” particularly for younger and college-educated women, because of the possible repercussions of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s concurring opinion.
“We want to make people mad, not afraid. When they’re mad, they’re energized. When they’re scared, they’re demobilized,” Lake said. “Watch how dramatic our language gets because we can scare people so much they feel helpless about it.”
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Regardless, Roe will be on the ballot in Michigan, as well as California, Kentucky, Montana, and Vermont. Michigan’s Supreme Court ordered its Board of State Canvassers last week to include an amendment on whether abortion access should be enshrined in its constitution, blocking its 1931 prohibition from taking effect.
