Republican strategists are warning that President Trump’s push to reopen schools will flop with critical suburban voters unless the coronavirus is put in check and confidence in his pandemic leadership revives.
Trump is urging K-12 schools to reopen for in-person instruction this fall amid a spike in coronavirus cases in states across the country, threatening to block federal funds from noncompliant school districts. After haphazard distance-learning programs implemented for the spring lockdown left parents frustrated and exhausted, senior Republican strategists say the president might have landed on a winning issue versus presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s cautious approach.
But to capitalize, Republicans emphasized Tuesday, Trump has work to do.
Job one is improving trust in his management of the coronavirus. The 40.5% approval rating for his handling of the crisis will cloud any proposal the president backs to return K-12 education to normal in the upcoming school year. Next, the coronavirus has to be brought under control so that parents feel comfortable sending their children to campus.
“The problem President Trump has is twofold,” a veteran Republican strategist with clients on the November ballot said. “One, voters no longer trust his judgment or predictions or handling of the virus. And, two, voters believe that many of their states opened too soon, while also believing that they did so because of pressure from the president.”
In an Ipsos poll conducted Friday through Monday for Axios, 71% of parents believe sending their children to school presents a moderate to large health risk to their kids, including 53% of self-described Republicans, 70% of women, 89% of black people, 80% of Hispanics, and 64% of white people. Other polls have shown similar concern about children returning to school. Nearly 140,000 people in the United States have died from the coronavirus.
But for parents who could not work from home because their jobs were deemed essential, distance learning created an acute child care headache. But even for parents who could work remotely, including many white-collar suburbanites, the distance learning programs provided by their children’s public and private schools were inconsistent and relegated most of the teaching load to them.
With COVID-19 infections surging, major school districts are announcing plans to continue virtual learning when the new school year begins in August and September. Less than four months before Election Day and trailing Biden in most national and battleground polls, Trump is attempting to boost support with suburban voters, a bloc he won in 2016 but that has defected from the GOP since then, by vowing to save parents from more chaos at home this fall.
“Now that we have witnessed it on a large scale basis, and firsthand, Virtual Learning has proven to be TERRIBLE compared to In School, or On Campus, Learning,” Trump tweeted this month. “Not even close! Schools must be open in the Fall. If not open, why would the Federal Government give Funding? It won’t!!!”
To win over these parents and put Biden on the defensive, Republican operatives say, Trump needs to stop crafting social media posts that are designed to rile up his base and treat the coronavirus as if the pandemic is receding. Instead, the president needs to show support for treading cautiously in states where COVID-19 is still spreading and show that he recognizes the fear many people are feeling because of the pandemic.
If Trump could make the shift, some Republicans are convinced the issue will pay dividends.
“If the president insists on making it polarizing and autocratic, he will not be rewarded,” a GOP insider said. “The suburban voter he can get with this wedge hates the my-way-or-the-highway approach, so he can’t do this that way. But he clearly has finally identified an issue on which he can find common ground with most suburban women if he will deliver it in the right way.”
