Disappointment in losing out on Donald Trump’s endorsement in a Republican primary is usually handled quietly, with whispered accusations that the former president made a mistake and hope, privately expressed, of proving him wrong.
Not so in Pennsylvania, where confident Republican Senate contender David McCormick and his supporters appeared unconcerned with provoking Trump as they immediately and publicly responded to the former president’s endorsement of primary rival Dr. Mehmet Oz by declaring victory certain and the endorsement a boneheaded mistake. McCormick “is going to be the next Senator from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” the candidate’s senior adviser, Jeff Roe, tweeted minutes after Trump publicized his Oz endorsement.
Indeed, Roe sent that tweet on top of the one issued by Trump’s spokesman that revealed Oz as the former president’s choice. McCormick has lately been on the rise in his expensive, high-stakes duel with Oz, watching his lead in the polls grow and his opponent’s support and favorable ratings shrink, and Sam DiMarco, the GOP chairman for Allegheny County, which features more registered Republicans than any other county in Pennsylvania, does not “anticipate” Trump’s endorsement “changing the dynamics of this race.”
“I think McCormick is going to win, and I don’t think this helps President Trump,” explained DiMarco, who is neutral in the Senate primary but leaning toward McCormick, 56, a military veteran and wealthy former hedge fund executive who is dumping millions of his personal fortune into the race.
Some Pennsylvania Republicans question that assessment.
“For McCormick to still win, he is going to have to radically change his strategy,” said Josh Novatney, a GOP operative in Philadelphia. “All of the money he spent calling Oz a [Republican in name only] completely evaporated in two seconds with the Trump endorsement. He has two choices: Double down hitting Oz, or define himself better.”
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Trump originally backed Sean Parnell in the Keystone State’s GOP Senate primary. But he exited the race unexpectedly in November, leaving the former president to pick a candidate anew. Although Trump’s decision to go with Oz confounded Republicans in Pennsylvania, GOP insiders familiar with, and close to, Trump say it was on-brand for the former president. Oz is a fellow uber-wealthy former TV personality, and the two have been personal friends for years.
Their rapport was evident in Trump’s lengthy endorsement statement issued Saturday. “He has lived with us through the screen and has always been popular, respected, and smart. He even said that I was in extraordinary health, which made me like him even more,” the former president said of Oz, 61, a heart surgeon who gained fame through a nationally syndicated television show he hosted for many years.
Trump’s spokesman declined to comment for this story. But the Oz campaign objects to the premise that the 45th president erred, emphasizing endorsements already received from prominent Republicans who are outspoken Trump supporters, among them talk radio host John Fredricks, Fox News prime-time host Sean Hannity, former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, and Pennsylvania Reps. Fred Keller and Guy Reschenthaler.
“President Trump endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz because he’s a conservative outsider who will stand up to [President] Joe Biden and the woke Left. He rejected Beijing’s favorite woke hedge fund CEO David McCormick because he is an establishment insider that praised Joe Biden,” Oz spokeswoman Brittany Yanick said. “It should come as no surprise that President Trump decided to endorse the conservative outsider like Dr. Oz.”
If some Republicans were surprised by Trump’s backing of Oz amid the famous physician’s negative trending poll numbers, it could be because so many prominent figures associated with him are backing McCormick: the former president’s 2016 campaign manager and later White House counselor, Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s former spokeswoman Hope Hicks, Parnell, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and lobbyist and Pennsylvania politics guru David Urban.
Republican insiders familiar with Trump’s deliberations over his second endorsement in the Pennsylvania Senate primary say he was heavily influenced to back Oz by his wife, former first lady Melania Trump, and a key informal adviser: Hannity. McCormick never expected to win Trump’s endorsement, claim Republican operatives familiar with his campaign, although that did not stop him from traveling to Palm Beach, Florida, last week to pitch the former president during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago.
McCormick led Oz in the RealClearPolitics polling average 21% to 18.4%, with former Ambassador Carla Sands, previous statewide candidate Jeff Bartos and political activist Kathy Barnette trailing far behind. But the McCormick campaign says the real indicator of where this race is headed, and the data bolstering its confidence, can be found in the two most recent surveys showing the former hedge fund executive with leads over Oz of 6 and 9 percentage points, respectively.
Those numbers are hardly insurmountable, especially considering the high number of undecided Republican voters in the Senate primary. But Republicans close to McCormick, and even Republicans in Pennsylvania who are neutral, believe the first-time candidate is on track to win, arguing his strengths are too much for the flawed Oz to overcome — even with Trump’s seal of approval. McCormick telegraphed his opinion of Oz’s most egregious flaws in negative TV ads that began airing Monday.
“The real Mehmet Oz,” a voiceover says as the spot opens, before giving way to old clips of Oz speaking about hot-button cultural issues and well-known figures despised by grassroots Republicans. Among the soundbites in the ad: “Sen. [Hillary] Clinton — one of the smartest people I have ever met … challenging your beliefs about what it means to be male or female … How do we keep guns out of the wrong person’s hands?”
McCormick’s team believes statements and past positions such as these are far more damaging to Oz, who moved from New Jersey to Pennsylvania so that he could run for Senate, than Oz’s charge that McCormick, a Pittsburgh native, is a lackey for Beijing because the hedge fund he led, Bridgewater Associates, is heavily invested in China. But some Republicans and unaffiliated political observers say Trump’s endorsement gives Oz an opportunity, if not the edge, in this primary.
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“It is notable that Trump endorsed a candidate who appears to be trailing by a few points. However, I don’t believe that a single-digit lead is enough to withstand the wave of support that Oz will receive as a result of the endorsement,” a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania said.
Added Jeffrey Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College: “Undoubtedly, this will give Oz a bump in the polls and more importantly should give him a share of those Republicans who are still undecided — a group who have to this point been leaning McCormick. The question remains whether this will be enough.”
