A flurry of Republican retirements in the House of Representatives is dampening the party’s bid to recapture the majority, a gloomy 2020 outlook that is nonetheless being roundly rejected by optimistic GOP leaders.
The Democrats turned 40 seats in the midterm elections, winning the House for the first time since losing the chamber in 2010 amid suburban discontent fueled by dissatisfaction with President Trump, especially among educated white women. The Democrats accomplished that feat by cleaning up in swing districts, including 31 who voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Democrats hold another 25 seats that had voted GOP for Congress until recently.
That emerging 2020 playing field, combined with robust fundraising in the first six months of this year, is making House Republican leaders and their closest advisers hopeful about challenging for the majority. They are pointedly dismissing the pessimism gripping many of their colleagues. If Republicans win the majority, they’ll buck history. The last time a party won the House in a presidential election after losing it in the preceding midterm contest was 1952.
“I remain very confident we will take back the majority,” said Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, who leads fundraising for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP campaign arm. Why is Hudson so optimistic? “The quality of our recruits and the diversity of our recruits,” he said.
Seven House Republicans in two weeks have announced they would not run for reelection, bringing the total to nine this cycle. The moves reflect deep dissatisfaction with serving in the minority and pessimism about ousting the Democrats from power anytime soon. Veteran Republican operatives, who expect more exits in the months ahead, say the road to the House majority becomes more challenging with each retirement.
A Republican strategist who advises congressional candidates pegged GOP prospects for flipping the 18 seats, net the party needs to reclaim the speaker’s gavel at 0%. “Ask me again after we know who the Democratic nominee is, but today it is zero,” this operative said, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly.
Reps. Will Hurd and Kenny Marchant are the most recent Republicans to announce their retirements. Along with Reps. Mike Conaway and Pete Olson, that makes four Texas Republicans heading who plan to leave the House upon the conclusion of the 116th Congress.
Hurd represents a swing district that could fall to the Democrats next year. More than that, the establishment-oriented congressman is respected and well-liked by fellow Republicans despite periodically clashing with Trump, and his decision to call it quits after just a few terms has shaken the GOP.
Hurd is the only African American Republican in the House. With two of the meager 13 GOP women who serve in the chamber also choosing to exit at the end of the current term, including Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana, who was tapped to lead the NRCC’s effort to recruit candidates, the party is facing questions about its dominance by white men.
House Republicans say they are working the problem. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is raising money to boost female candidates in GOP primaries. Elsewhere, NRCC spokesman Chris Pack said that of the committee’s top 55 candidate recruits, 18 are ethnic minorities. Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the NRCC chairman, “is committed to having a diverse caucus, and he’s not wavering at all,” Pack said.
So far, most of the Republicans planning to depart represent ruby red districts unlikely to change parties in 2020, and their decisions are not historically unusual for members who are newly in the minority. Regardless, the retirements are damaging morale and could strain resources.
A mass exodus does requires bigger investments in districts that the party would otherwise not have to worry about if the incumbent were running. Tom Reynolds, a former New York congressman who served as the NRCC’s chairman, said party leaders going to have to work hard to convince wavering Republicans to run for reelection.
“This is the time that leadership, as well as the NRCC, has to be very diligent [about] what members’ needs are,” he said.
