It’s hard to oust a Democratic incumbent in Massachusetts unless you are a Kennedy.
That’s the dynamic at play in the U.S. Senate race, where Sen. Ed Markey is fighting to hold onto his job in the face of primary opponent Joseph Kennedy III, the grandson of the Robert Kennedy and grandnephew of the late President John F. Kennedy.
Markey, 74, has served in Congress for more than four decades, most of that time as a House lawmaker representing a suburban Boston district that at various times took in parts of Middlesex, Suffolk, and Worcester counties. Kennedy, 39, was first elected to the House in 2012 in a district south of Boston, including most of Plymouth County, and expanding westward to include towns along the Rhode Island state line.
Political observers say Kennedy’s youth and energy, not just his name, may give him an advantage over Markey in the Bay State.
But the Kennedy Mystique is also alive and well in Massachusetts and is certain to play a role in deciding who appears on the Nov. 3 ballot.
The Democratic primary is Sept. 1.
“At the end of the day, I think that Kennedy name is going to be what pushes him over the finish line,” Marcus Ferro, a New Bedford attorney and political commentator for WBSM in New Bedford, told the Washington Examiner. “People like to say he’s just running on his name. Here in Massachusetts, that’s been a pretty good name.”
The Kennedy political dynasty in Massachusetts dates back many decades, and some voters are still mourning the loss of Ted Kennedy, who served as an effective legislator in the U.S. Senate for 47 years until his death from brain cancer in 2009.
Joe Kennedy’s father, Joseph Kennedy II, served in Congress representing a Cambridge-based district from 1987 until 1999.
“People in Massachusetts remember getting represented very well by the Kennedys,” Ferro said. “And Kennedy’s youth and energy, seeing him campaign, has been very helpful.”
But recent public and internal polls suggest the race between Kennedy and Markey is tightening and that Markey is now pulling ahead.
A UMass/WCVB poll released Thursday of 500 registered voters that showed Markey leading Kennedy 50% to 32%, with 12% to 17% of those surveyed undecided. The survey sample was relatively small, however, and the error margin was 7% for those considered likely voters.
Markey’s campaign has closed in on Kennedy in part by mobilizing key liberal groups to campaign and make thousands of phone calls on his behalf. Markey has the backing of progressive superstar Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a freshmen House member from New York and author of the Green New Deal.
Markey also won the coveted endorsement of the Boston Globe, which praised him for his fight to end fossil fuels to combat climate change, as well as other liberal initiatives.
Markey was among the few Senate Democrats who stood alongside Ocasio-Cortez outside the U.S. Capitol when she unveiled the Green New Deal, which calls for upending the energy industry and the economy by converting to green energy production.
Markey introduced the measure in the Senate, although it has been ignored by GOP leaders and many members of his own party, who criticized it as too radical.
“The moment calls for a progressive champion with a solid track record,” the Boston Globe editorial board wrote last month.
Public polling on the race is scarce. The most recent survey conducted on July 29 and July 30 showed Markey ahead by 3 points. Prior to that, an Emerson University poll taken in early May showed Kennedy with a 16-point lead.
Internal polling also indicates Markey is taking the lead over Kennedy, those who have seen the data told the Washington Examiner.
The tightening race has put Kennedy on offense.
During an Aug. 11 debate, he accused Markey of missing too many Senate votes and doing “nothing” to help the family of a young black man killed by police a decade ago.
A political action committee supporting Kennedy, meanwhile, has launched a negative ad campaign against Markey.
“The race has definitely moved in Markey’s direction,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told the Washington Examiner. “It makes sense why Kennedy has gone negative. The general conclusion is Markey was down double-digits, and now he’s probably slightly ahead or even at this point.”
The outcome of the race will be influenced by the state’s decision to allow mail-in ballots because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Paleologos said permitting mail-in balloting could expand the base of voters, which would benefit Kennedy, according to polls that show the most likely voters favoring Markey. An expanded voter base would help bring in more casual voters who polls indicate favor for Kennedy.
The UMass poll found among the 362 likely voters polled, 53% plan to vote by mail.
“You don’t want to rely on causal voters with a mail-in ballot on coffee tables that they may or may not return,” Paleologos said. “That is what makes Kennedy more viable.”
[OPINION: Joe Kennedy III has no good reason to primary Ed Markey except vanity]
The two candidates are ideologically similar. While Markey campaigns as the most liberal candidate, Kennedy is a member of the House Progressive Caucus and received the endorsement of Progressive Caucus co-Chairman Marc Pocan, a Wisconsin Democrat.
Markey is campaigning on his experience and advocacy of “Medicare for all,” corporate accountability, gun safety, and of course, the Green New Deal, which he features prominently on his campaign website.
Kennedy features criminal justice reform, civil rights, Supreme Court term limits, and abolishing the Electoral College and the Senate filibuster, among other priorities.
Ferro said the two candidates are attracting different sets of voters.
“Kennedy seems to be leading with the Black and Latino communities, and Kennedy was leading with more blue-collar workers,” Ferro said. “Markey is leading with Elizabeth Warren crowd and more highly-educated crowd. That’s a significant portion of Massachusetts.”
Paleologos agreed with Ferro’s assessment that the Kennedy name is a big part of the race but said Markey has been able to hold his ground with voters by touting his decadeslong tenure in Congress.
“The original premise of the race is you have the policy guy versus the persona — the Kennedy persona,” Paleologos said. “That’s still really the inference in the race right now. Voters see Kennedy as a young fighter, but they don’t see him accomplished on policy issues.”
