A top House Republican says his recent trip to Taiwan reinforced that the island nation views the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “wake-up call” as its own China threat looms and that Taiwanese leaders see the challenge posed by the Beijing-Moscow alliance.
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), the chairman of the newly formed House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, returned from a multiday trip to Taiwan this week after meeting with a host of Taiwanese political leaders, saying that Taiwan views Russia’s war in Ukraine as a fate that could await it if it doesn’t take the proper steps needed to defend its democratic island nation from a potential Chinese invasion.
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“Most of the Taiwanese leaders that I met with talked about Ukraine as just a massive wake-up call for what happens when deterrence fails and the need to wage peace so that deterrence does not fail,” Gallagher said in response to a Washington Examiner question on Wednesday.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), another member of the China committee who also just returned from Taiwan, told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday he agreed with Gallagher’s assessment: “I would just echo the wake-up call and the fact that they very recently moved from requiring four months of service to one year of service, and that was supported by all of the parties in power. It suggests that they do clearly see it is a wake-up call for Taiwan.”
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen gave a speech in late December 2022 in which she linked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with China’s nefarious designs on her country. She said that “only by strengthening our self-defense capabilities can Taiwan more effectively protect our national security” and announced an expanded military, a new standing garrison force, a new civil defense system, an expanded reserve force, and mandatory one-year military service for Taiwanese men.
“Thousands of miles away in Europe, as we all celebrated Christmas last weekend and with the New Year fast approaching, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passed its 300th day and continues unabated. Ukraine, though, has not fallen, and it is still fighting,” Tsai said. “As in Europe, China’s expansion in Asia continues to challenge the international rules-based order, threatening regional peace and stability, and impacting cross-strait relations. China’s attempts to coerce Taiwan have become clearer.”
Tsai Ing-wen declared, “No one wants war. … However, my fellow citizens, peace cannot be taken for granted. … Only by preparing for war can we avoid it — only by being capable of fighting a war can we stop one.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met at the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics in early February 2022 to announce a broad strategic partnership “without limits” amid Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border. The Kremlin invasion happened a few weeks later, and Beijing has gone out of its way to support Putin with rhetoric echoing Russia’s justification for the invasion, with economic and financial support, and with the provision of, at minimum, nonlethal military aid.
Gallagher said Wednesday that Taiwan’s top national security officials were concerned about the “DragonBear” alliance between Russia and China and that Tsai Ming-yen, the director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, was well-studied on the saga.
“The person I found to be most eloquent on this issue was the director-general of NSB, Director-General Tsai — no relation to President Tsai,” Gallagher told the Washington Examiner. “He actually wrote his Ph.D. dissertation back in the early 2000s on the increasing military cooperation and partnership between China and Russia, and I think it was subsequently published as a book. … So, he was two decades ahead of this curve.”
Tsai Ming-yen received a Ph.D. in war studies at King’s College London and published a 2003 book, From Adversaries to Partners?: Chinese and Russian Military Cooperation after the Cold War.
“During the Cold War, the major focus of the Sino-Soviet relationship had been the possibility of military confrontation on their common border. By contrast, after the end of the Cold War, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation have sought to strengthen their military cooperation and to develop friendly exchanges between their military forces,” Tsai Ming-yen wrote two decades ago. “Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea may increase China’s needs for Russian supplies of arms and spare parts, and lead China to seek further strategic cooperation with Russia to counter U.S. support for Taiwan.”
Gallagher said Wednesday that China and Russia “are strange bedfellows to be sure” but that Tsai Ming-yen “persuasively talked about what he called a ‘strategic convergence’ between China and Russia” during the congressman’s meetings with him.
“He pointed out that there are really two principles that these powers have in common. One is that, though they may disagree, they are good at presenting a united front against their main target, which in this case is the United States — it’s sort of the principle of the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” Gallagher said of Tsai Ming-yen. “And then the second is that both leaders have a strong sense of historical revisionism and feel it is their mission to restore their countries to its past glory, in part to atone for past humiliation.”
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Xi has declared it a top goal of his to “reunite” Taiwan with China, including potentially by force, and there are growing concerns from U.S. military leaders that China may be planning an invasion in the coming years.
“We need to be moving heaven and Earth to arm Taiwan to the teeth to avoid a war,” Gallagher told reporters Wednesday. “Nobody knows if and when Xi Jinping wakes up and decides to do this, but all the more reason to put in place a denial posture as quickly as possible.”
