More than half of the United States population lives in an area facing a high risk of power outages during peak demand this winter, according to the nation’s top grid regulator — a message that carries renewed significance on the heels of Winter Storm Elliott and Winter Storm Uri, the two damaging winter storms that pummeled the Southeast and Texas in the last three years, causing temporary blackouts for millions of people.
Here’s a breakdown of who’s most at risk this winter:
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Most of the U.S.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned in its latest Winter Reliability Assessment that the number of people deemed “at risk” for blackouts during the 2023-2024 heating season is much higher than the 2022-2023 winter season forecast, when just a fourth of the U.S. population was considered at risk.
That’s due to inadequate generator weatherization and limitations to natural gas infrastructure, especially in cold weather conditions.
Failure to “winterize” gas-fired power plants can lead to operating difficulties in the winter, such as the kind seen during Elliott and Uri, which were both linked in large part to the failure of natural gas generators to come online.
East Coast residents
Residents living in the Eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and Canada face an “elevated risk” of insufficient energy supplies to meet peak demand in extreme operating conditions.
While extreme winter weather would be expected to pose additional danger to most bulk power grids, regulators have noted that most of the East Coast is actually adequately supplied for normal peak winter demand conditions.
Its biggest threat, therefore, would come from any widespread or prolonged cold snaps, which could freeze gas-fired resources, or make it difficult for power grids to transfer supplies, regulators said. New England could also face problems with gas transportation infrastructure in extended cold spells.
Southeast residents
Residents in the Southeast could see energy emergencies due in large part to the rising imbalance between forecasted winter peak demand in the region, which has increased significantly in recent years, and available energy resources, which have stagnated.
This imbalance could be exacerbated further in extremely low temperatures, especially if natural gas supplies cannot get onto the grid on time.
Winterization is another key factor. As illustrated by the recent winter storms in Texas and the Southeast, failure to “winterize” these gas-fired generators and protect against freezing temperatures can result in operating difficulties or slower production.
While gas operators are taking steps to weatherize their conditions and help lower risks for the winter weather, NERC officials assessed that it is unlikely that actions will be enough to reduce the risk down to an acceptable level.
Looking ahead
Recent winter reliability events have forced more than 20% of generating capacity offline when freezing temperatures extend to parts of North America that “are not typically exposed to such conditions,” regulators said.
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In the years ahead, however, these risks are expected to increase significantly. More than 83 gigawatts of fossil-fueled and nuclear-fired capacity is slated for retirement in the next 10 years, according to the NERC 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment published this month.
Some 18 states in the Midwest and Southern U.S. are assessed as being at “high risk” of energy shortfalls in the coming years, the regulator said — a risk further exacerbated by the push to phase out fossil fuel plants and move toward electrification, primarily in the transportation and heating sectors, which could further increase demand on power grids.
