The lead for Democrats ticked up in FiveThirtyEight’s final generic ballot poll average before the midterm elections.
Democrats held an 8.5 point lead when the last estimate was calculated Nov. 2. Four days later, they inched up to an 8.7 point lead, with 50.7 percent supporting Democrats and 42 percent supporting Republicans.
“The generic ballot average wound up at D +8.7. That’s *not* a good number for Republicans,” editor in chief Nate Silver tweeted.
[Read: The 10 key races to watch: How to know if you’re witnessing a blue wave]
We’ve also frozen our generic ballot average, and our running our final model run now!
The generic ballot average wound up at D +8.7. That’s *not* a good number for Republicans. The D lead ticked up from 8-ish to 9-ish on the last set of polls to come in. https://t.co/nSPeKmmioC pic.twitter.com/OSzxievNok
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2018
Most pollsters expect Democrats to regain the majority in the House. They need to pick up 23 seats to win a majority Tuesday. Meanwhile the Senate appears likely to stay in GOP control.
Silver noted that his model adjusts polls that aren’t conducted among likely voters.
“But it doesn’t change the numbers at all. Democrats are doing just as well in likely voter polls as registered voter ones this year,” he said.
