Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are sounding the alarm that Russia’s attack on Ukraine could increase the threat of China invading Taiwan, with some calling for the United States to ramp up its efforts to deter an incursion.
These concerns spiked after China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that “Taiwan is not Ukraine,” arguing it has “always been an inalienable part of China” and refusing to call Russia’s actions an invasion.
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Top members of Congress cautioned that while China has denied backing the Russian incursion into Ukraine, they believe the communist country is “playing both sides” with its rhetoric, arguing that an alliance between the U.S. adversaries should not be ignored.
“The risk of the Chinese and the Russians collaborating more closely against liberal democracy is something that we should all be concerned about,” Rep. Dean Phillips, a Minnesota Democrat who is a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “Of course, China is going to be watching how the world responds to an incursion in Ukraine, because of course, they have the same eyes on Taiwan, there’s no question.”
House Foreign Affairs ranking member Micheal McCaul said he believes it is “only a matter of time” before China invades Taiwan, noting that at least nine Chinese military jets have already been seen crossing into the self-governed island’s airspace.
“I think we all saw this unholy alliance coming together at the Beijing Olympics, where Putin and [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping] were hand-in-hand condemning NATO’s ‘aggression’ and calling for the West to stay out of the South China Sea and Taiwan,” the Texas Republican said in an interview.
“So these two events are interconnected and intertwined, and I think Putin has always wanted to do this, it was all about the right time. And I think Xi has always wanted to take Taiwan — it’s about basically going back to the glory of their empires.”
California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa also said he sees a Taiwan incursion as almost inevitable, asserting he believes action needs to be taken in advance.
“You know, they were already looking at licking their chops. After Afghanistan, they now will look at their sovereign entity — I mean, whether we like it or not, Taiwan ever since Nixon has not been recognized as a country but rather as a part of China that is entitled to special treatment, but that special treatment ends when the troops go in, and that’s what’s going to happen,” he told the Washington Examiner.
McCaul said that after speaking with military officials, he believes the U.S. needs to help provide Taiwan with the resources necessary for the island to prepare for an attack.
“Deterrence is always a key. I didn’t really see any deterrence with respect to Ukraine. In fact, waving the Nord Stream 2 sanctions [last May] was, in my judgment, a really bad mistake and emboldened Putin,” he said in an interview.
“I think the Pacific Command fleet needs to be in the Taiwan Strait and very visible as a deterrent factor. I’m the guy that signs off on for military weapons sales, and we need to sell more what we call asymmetric weapons, because they’re never going to beat China conventionally, but if we can give them what we call asymmetric weapons to basically counter the threats — we need to help them defend themselves,” McCaul said.
Rep. Ann Wagner of Missouri, the second-highest-ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the nature of the U.S.’s relationship with Taiwan is different from Ukraine, as the U.S. has longer provided resources to the island, but feels the U.S. isn’t sending a strong enough message to other adversaries to deter acts of aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
“We’ve got a different relationship, I’m going to say, with Taiwan — it’s a longer relationship, a closer relationship, what I would call a major non-NATO ally. We have sent far more equipment and military equipment, done tons of training exercises with Taiwan,” she told the Washington Examiner.
“I think the posture that we’ve taken if China were to invade, I think the U.S.’s stated position is one of strategic ambiguity — now that sounds terrible, but — but what it really means is we’re not going to tell you what it is. We’re going to just tell you to get you ought not go there,” Wagner continued. “And — but it’s concerning that, again — that this kind of weakness is a dangerous message to Xi and to China and to Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are watching, and our allies need us to lead.”
Phillips noted there are challenges in preventing China from taking similar action as Russia, stating that the U.S. and its allies need to hold a united front in pushing back against adversarial actions.
“I don’t know if the threat of sanctions is a great deterrent — I do think the pain has to be felt for it to be effective, and I think that the same is true in this case. You know, the sad truth is — we have to state the facts — is that most of the developed world, including its democracies, don’t want to see bloodshed and don’t want to dedicate their young men and women to fighting these wars, which means our toolbox is limited,” he said.
“And sanctions, I think, can have an effect — whether it’ll be enough of an effect to force an end to this crisis or to dissuade China from moving on Taiwan, only time will tell, but diplomacy only works when it’s supported with a strong stick in the background, and if we’re not willing to use it, absolutely does limit, I think, our toolkit,” he added.
New York Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney raised concerns that the Kremlin’s actions could set a precedent that stems beyond Taiwan, adding she believes the U.S. needs to strengthen its strategy to prevent similar instances.
“I’ve had some conversations that have been confidential in nature with various members of other countries. Ambassadors in Eastern Europe are very concerned about what this move by Putin could set as the precedent for him moving even further, for China moving even more strongly into Taiwan and providing some kind of outside aid and support to Russia’s actions and using Russia as a leverage point to continue their malign intervention,” she said.
“And we know that Russia is already moving into Eastern Europe and the Balkans, trying to interfere, trying to use propaganda campaigns … I think we’re in a tough spot, and we’re going to have to start putting together a much stronger plan, a geopolitical plan,” she said.
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Russia escalated its attacks on Ukraine on Wednesday, with Ukrainian officials stating that the country employed strikes against its military infrastructure.
The move has been met with condemnation from leaders across the world, with the U.S. issuing additional sanctions in response to Russian aggression in recent days.