Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Falling Dominoes”

A friend of the Worldwide Standard sends along some thoughts on the recent op-ed piece, “The Real Choice in Iraq,” penned by President Carter’s national security advisor. He writes: In his January 8, 2006 op-ed in the Washington Post, Zbigniew Brzezinski, in enumerating his criticisms of the Bush Administration, wrote this:

The administration’s definition of ‘defeat’ [regarding Iraq] is similarly misleading. Official and unofficial spokesmen often speak in terms that recall the apocalyptic predictions made earlier regarding the consequences of American failure to win in Vietnam: dominoes falling, the region exploding and U.S. power discredited.

I thought it might be interesting to find out specifically who Mr. Brzezinski may have had in mind in ridiculing the “apocalyptic predictions” (dominoes falling, the region exploding and U.S. power discredited) if America failed to win in Vietnam. It turns out he might have had in mind someone like the Director of the Research Institute on Communist Affairs and professor of law and government at Columbia University in the 1960s: Zbigniew Brzezinski. In a March 1, 1964 op-ed in the Washington Post (“‘Neutral’ Viet-Nam a Chinese Backyard: Noted Student of Communism Says De Gaulle Suggestion Would Be U.S. Defeat and A Handover to Peking”), Mr. Brzezinski responded to a press conference by French President Charles de Gaulle, who concluded that the United States was neither capable nor had the will to stay in Southeast Asia. President de Gaulle argued for the “neutralization” of South Viet-Nam — de Gaulle’s gracious way of handing the area over to the Chinese, Mr. Brzezinski said. And what did Mr. Brzezinski think of this recommendation? Not much. In his op-ed, Mr. Brzezinski wrote that it would “be nothing less than an American defeat. Furthermore, it would leave Southeast Asia without any countervailing political force to that of China. In effect, it would transform that area into a Chinese political back yard.” And then, under the heading “A Row of Dominos” (!), Mr. Brzezinski wrote this:

As a result it is certain beyond question that there would be immediate political instability in Thailand, whose northeast is already exposed to insurgency and whose politicians are already fearful that American commitments are not to be trusted. Malaysia, until two years ago an area of Communist insurgency, would be certain to fall, and the collapse of these states would have a direct impact on the present insurgency in Burma. The collapse of the small Southeast Asian states would not only benefit China politically and economically but it would be likely to have further unsettling effects on India and Indonesia. One cannot predict precisely what would happen — but it is clear that stability is not to be sought through neutralization.

Mr. Brzezinski concludes his op-ed this way:

The effect of the policy of neutralization would be an escalation of international tension. One may also add that the loss of South Viet-Nam would be likely to have a very negative impact on the American domestic scene. It would reawaken extreme right-wing claims that there has been a new betrayal, and it could result in a new wave of extremism in two or three years from now.

Next time Mr. Brzezinski might want to consult his own past writings in order to avoid sharply criticizing them.

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