Egg prices are through the roof even as broader inflation is beginning to ease.
Memes and jokes about the increasingly pricey breakfast food are popping up all over the internet, but surging egg prices mean families that rely on the typically cheap product are shelling out more than is in their budget. Many consumers are asking — why are eggs such an outlier?
For some context, the rise in egg prices isn’t entirely recent. Even months ago, back in the fall, egg prices were far outpacing the annual inflation of other food items. That trend has only continued, with eggs now being 138% more expensive in December than they were the year before, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. From November to December alone, egg prices rose a staggering 18.4%.
Those increases are adding up quickly. A carton of a dozen large Grade A eggs cost an average of $4.25 last month, which is a big increase from the $1.79 people were paying for the same product last year.
EGG SMUGGLING INTO US SKYROCKETS AMID RISING PRICES
A family of five that eats four dozen eggs per week was spending $7.16 per week on eggs in December of last year, a number that adds up to $372.32 for the entire year. With last month’s prices, that same family would be shelling out $17 per week on eggs, or $884 per year.
The main driver of the increase in egg prices is the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, also known as bird flu.
Since February 2021, bird flu has killed off nearly 40 million hens, or about 5% of the country’s total chicken flock, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Agriculture told ABC News. Egg production has fallen by about 4% since then.
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, told the Washington Examiner that this year has been the worst in U.S. history for the avian flu. Because of its contagiousness, poultry farms that have affected animals end up having to cull their whole flocks.
“The world is facing an unprecedented pandemic of avian flu among caged and wild bird populations,” Rajiv Chowdhury, senior epidemiologist and professor of global health at Florida International University, told Fortune.
Typically, the avian flu begins spreading in October as it follows the migratory bird patterns, but this year was unusual in that the virus began spreading in the warmer months, adding to the damage to the poultry industry.
Nelson said that Colorado recently suffered a particularly bad outbreak, in which about 1.3 million birds were affected. If each bird laid five eggs each week, that would be somewhere around 6.5 million eggs lost per week just due to that outbreak alone.
“That kind of paints an image of where it’s at, and that’s really what has been responsible for driving prices up,” he said.
Nelson said that while some of the growth in egg prices can be attributed to overall inflation (noting that the overall cost of groceries is still elevated), by far, the biggest culprit for the sky-high egg prices is the avian flu.
Egg prices in some parts of the country have cooled off a bit over the past month, Nelson said, but he still expects that overall prices may remain elevated, at least in the near-term.
“It’s probably going to run for the next quarter or so. You’ve got to realize what happens when they have to basically put down these birds that have been infected or potentially exposed is that you lose a whole segment there of the productive population,” Shelton Weeks, a professor at Florida Gulf Coast University, told the Washington Examiner.
With the soaring prices, there has also been some softening in demand, with demand dropping from a high to a moderate level right now, Nelson explained. He said some of the falling demand is attributable to the baking-heavy holiday season coming to an end.
Still, some accuse companies of price-gouging. Farm Action, a farmer-led advocacy group, told the Federal Trade Commission that major egg producers are working together in a “collusive scheme” to fix prices.
The group is calling for the FTC to launch an investigation into “concerns over apparent price gouging, price coordination, and other unfair or deceptive acts or practices by dominant producers of eggs.”
USDA data show overall table egg production was down 6.6% in December from a year before and that the average number of egg-laying birds was down 5% during the same period. Farm Action argued that the massive price increases don’t make sense given the more modest declines in egg production.
But the high egg prices aren’t just affecting consumers. Egg seizures at the country’s borders with Mexico and Canada have gone through the roof as a result of the surging costs.
“The San Diego Field Office has recently noticed an increase in the number of eggs intercepted at our ports of entry. As a reminder, uncooked eggs are prohibited entry from Mexico into the U.S. Failure to declare agriculture items can result in penalties of up to $10,000,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection San Diego Director of Field Operations Jennifer De La O tweeted last week.
From the start of October to the end of last year, CBP saw a 108% increase in egg seizures across the U.S.-Mexico border. Recent weeks have reportedly seen an even greater surge.
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Other food items have seen big annual price increases, although not quite as robust as eggs have. Overall, food away from home is up 8.3% in the 12 months ending in December, while food at home, meaning food bought at grocery and convenience stores, is up nearly 12% during that same period.
Overall inflation has declined from above 9% in June to 6.5% in December, according to the consumer price index.
