Though months remain before the first 2020 Democratic presidential primary contest, Karl Rove argued only three candidates have a shot at winning the nomination: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders.
“Yes, scads of other Democrats remain in the race, all saying they’re in it to win it. But with summer gone, no other candidate has made significant inroads. It’s unlikely that any of them has a real chance to be the nominee,” the former adviser to President George W. Bush wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
Rove’s piece was published ahead of the third Democratic debate in Houston where 10 candidates will appear on stage, including the former vice president, Massachusetts senator, and Vermont senator.
Citing their poll numbers, Rove said it’s unlikely any of the lower-tier candidates will gain lasting momentum from their debate performance unless there’s a “total collapse of a top-tier candidate coupled with the reboot of a back-of-the-pack candidate who grabs the hearts of Democrats in the manner of Robert Kennedy in 1968 and Ted Kennedy’s challenge to President Jimmy Carter in 1980.”
“It’s hard to imagine that happening,” he wrote. “The lesser lights can still do damage to the top-tier candidates, but that doesn’t mean it’ll catapult the instigator to the top. Consider Rep. Tim Ryan ’s comment that Mr. Biden’s mental acuity is ‘declining.’ Mr. Ryan won’t benefit from that explosive charge; Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders will.”
