Republican strategists say the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to be a Supreme Court justice will help Trump in Ohio, where a high concentration of Catholic voters could be mobilized as they were in the last presidential election.
“All you have to do is go back to 2016,” said Ohio Republican strategist Mike Hartley.
“In Ohio, most of the polling I’ve seen has had very, very few what’s called ‘leaners,’ or undecided,” said Hartley. “What that means is that it’s all about turnout. There’s no persuasion going on in the state of Ohio. It’s all about turnout. And I can tell you from 2016, there are an awful lot of conservative voters who may not have agreed with candidate Trump back in 2016. But the courts, and the appointments of judges, was incredibly important to them. And that’s why they voted for candidate Trump at that time.”
He added: “With the possibility of appointing three Supreme Court justices” in his first term, “that is only increased tenfold.”
Biden leads Trump by less than 1 percentage point in Ohio, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls. In a New York Times/Siena College survey of 661 likely voters polled between Oct. 2 and 6. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
A Trump 2016 campaign official said the focus on Barrett suggests that conservative values and abortion would galvanize a Republican base. “Let’s look at Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada,” this person said, pointing to states with large Christian populations that the president hopes to win. “I’m not necessarily saying that that’s the right thing to do. I’m just telling you that’s what they’re telling me.”
Republican operative Mark Weaver said that Barrett appeals to demographic groups that Republicans have sought to recapture and will mobilize voters aggrieved by Democratic attacks on her faith.
“In Ohio, I think this nomination helps President Trump,” Weaver said. “Suburban women like this nominee because they see themselves in her,” he said. “Catholic voters, of which there are many in Ohio, resent the attacks on Judge Barrett, which could have a real backlash for Democrats like Joe Biden.”
Ohio’s Citizens for Community Values President Aaron Baer said that in 2016, “The courts were central to the conversation.” Now, just over three weeks out from Election Day, the renewed focus on the courts, and now on Barrett, is a reminder to conservatives of what’s at stake.
“Especially in Northeast Ohio, where there’s quite a few Catholics, maybe your classical Blue Dog Democrats that love their unions and their public schools, but who are also pro-life and love their church, we are seeing the ’16 momentum that was there for the president really come back,” Baer said.
Part of this, he added, “is reminding folks of what’s on the line — I think COVID has made a lot of people really tired of politics.”
Baer said his group had seen “a big surge of people, of churches, requesting voter guides” as the election nears.
