On Friday I covered the interim population estimates recently issued by the Census Bureau, and their implications for the elections of 2012 and beyond. Political consultant Soren Dayton wrote a response at his excellent blog eyeon08, where he threw a dash of cold water on my optimistic assessment. Dayton does not dispute that many of the states gaining Congressional seats (and hence electoral votes) are currently red states. He points up, however, the importance of where population is added within a state, as well as who’s doing the redistricting. Thus, seats gained in Florida, Texas, or Nevada may not turn out to be Republican seats. Similarly he says, it may wind up being Republican seats that are eliminated from blue states. Dayton concludes:
His points are well taken–in particular his comments about the importance of who ends up drawing Congressional boundaries. Go read his whole post. According to the National Conference on State Legislatures, Democrats currently control the state House, Senate, and Governorships in 15 states. Republicans have control in 9. If this were a redistricting year, Republicans would be political targets in the first 15 blue states; Democrats in the 9 red ones. This demonstrates the importance of the 2010 elections, when 36 states will elect governors and state legislatures. In 18 of the 36 states, governors will be stepping down due to term limits. The 18 (or more) new governors will be the ones who preside over the drawing of new district lines. Thus the public verdict on the next president’s first two years in office may have a critical influence on who controls the House of Representatives from 2012 to 2022.
