The next round of political mapmaking won’t start for more than a year, but Democrats are in a strong position to stave off the gerrymandering disaster the party suffered earlier this decade.
Recent state-level wins in Virginia and Louisiana give the party considerably more leverage as maps are drawn after the 2020 census. Combined with a favorable court ruling in North Carolina, new maps could help Democrats retain and possibly expand upon their current House majority of 233 members, compared to 197 Republicans and one independent, plus four vacancies.
In Virginia, Democrats flipped both chambers of the legislature earlier this month. Working with Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, the party can, if it chooses, draw congressional maps to effectively lock in its current 7-4 advantage in the House, and possibly even pick up a seat. That’s a big change from much of the past 20 years, through the 2018 elections, when Republicans usually held an 8-3 edge, even as Virginia became a swing state and then a blue one.
In Louisiana, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards on Saturday won reelection despite President Trump heavily campaigning for his Republican opponent. Just as importantly for Democrats, Republicans failed to elect a two-thirds majority in the state House (the state Senate has a Republican supermajority). That means there aren’t enough GOP lawmakers to override a gubernatorial veto on a new district map. With Republicans in control of Louisiana’s House delegation in Washington 5-1, Democrats now have leverage to bargain for a compromise map that could yield an extra seat.
Then there’s North Carolina, where Republicans currently have a 10-3 edge in the state’s House delegation, though the congressional vote in 2018 was nearly evenly split statewide. A redistricting plan approved by North Carolina lawmakers on Friday follows an October state Supreme Court ruling that said North Carolina Republicans, in control of the legislature, violated the state constitution by unfairly disadvantaging Democrats.
The case comes in the wake of a June U.S. Supreme Court decision barring challenges to partisan gerrymandering, though state supreme courts can do so, as happened North Carolina and has occurred in other states.
The newly enacted North Carolina map would effectively create two new Democratic seats, diluting Republicans’ edge to 8-5. Democrats are suing over the map, in the hopes a court draws one instead that could give the party a shot at winning six or even seven seats in 2020. Either way, House Democrats can expect a pickup of at least two seats in North Carolina.
That’s all a stark change from the last round of redistricting after the 2010 census. Republicans that year won back the House majority they lost in 2006 and swept into control of several state legislatures. With sympathetic lawmakers in place to draw new political maps, the House GOP cemented its majority, holding it for three more election cycles.
Even before recent wins, Democrats were making headway on redistricting. Michigan voters in 2018 passed a ballot measure to create an independent commission for congressional and state political map drawing. That approach has been effective for Democrats in California and Pennsylvania in recent years, helping the party pick up a series of seats in once-strong Republican areas. In Michigan, new maps have the potential to keep in place Democrats’ current 7-6 majority over Republicans, along with one independent member, Trump critic Justin Amash. Depending on how lines are drawn, Democrats could even pick up a seat.
Not all redistricting news for Democrats is good. “Republicans would currently have unfettered power to draw almost 40% of all congressional districts nationwide, while Democrats would hold sway over just 14%,” according to Daily Kos Elections. “The remaining districts would be crafted by a mix of redistricting commissions (of varying degrees of political independence), legislative compromises, and the courts (in the event of any state government deadlocks).”
Democrats have one more election cycle to win more state legislative chambers and press lawsuits for more favorable redistricting outcomes. So, although the party isn’t exactly sitting pretty in redistricting, it’s unlikely to be deep in the hole the way it was nearly a decade ago.
