DES MOINES, Iowa — Joe Biden’s campaign has suggested he could win the 2020 Democratic nomination even if he loses in the two most prominent primary season states, Iowa and New Hampshire.
The former vice president’s campaign schedule suggests that calculus has changed.
Biden, 77, will embark on an eight-day bus trip starting on Dec. 1. Biden to date has campaigned regularly, if not frequently, in the state, which holds its caucuses Feb. 3, in what is the nation’s first nomination contest. Biden will also visit the state this weekend, beginning with stops in the Des Moines area on Friday with two others scheduled nearby on Saturday.
But his more intense focus on Iowa comes amid increasingly intense challenges from 2020 Democratic primary rivals, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, along with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
The bus trip, which includes visits to towns and cities in 18 counties featuring town halls and other events, upends the campaign’s willingness to forsake Iowa and the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary, if necessary. The old plan envisioned Biden looking past those states and winning big in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary. Over more than three decades of campaigning in South Carolina in his three presidential runs, Biden has built up strong relationships with the state’s black community, which is expected to comprise up to 60% of the primary vote. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden leading in South Carolina with 35.3%, more than double Warren’s 16.3% backing.
The latest Iowa trips come as Biden has seen his position in the state fall to fourth place, according to the latest poll from Iowa State University. That survey found Biden’s support at 12%, trailing Sanders by six points, seven behind Warren, and 14 points behind Buttigieg. A Siena College/New York Times poll released Nov. 1 found his Iowa support at 17%, placing him in fourth as well.
A RealClearPolitics average of November’s Iowa polls has Biden currently tied with Sanders for third place at 17%, with Warren in second at 17.8%, and Buttigieg at 23.5%.
Although Biden’s campaign has long told reporters and donors that it doesn’t believe a win in Iowa or New Hampshire is necessary to secure the party’s presidential nomination, sources close those to the campaign say he wants to avoid an embarrassing fourth-place finish.
Placing fourth would be an ominous sign for Biden, who, in his 2008 campaign, won 0.9% of the vote in Iowa. Biden dropped out of the race shortly after.
During his first White House run, in 1987, Iowa was also the state where Biden’s presidential ambitions began to crumble. At a campaign visit in the state, Biden mimicked the language of a British politician that brought accusations of plagiarism, which snowballed into a wave of stories about his poor academic record in law school and other issues.
As a caucus state, Iowa’s system of choosing a candidate may favor the likes of Warren, running as a left-wing populist, or Sanders, a socialist, who have legions of enthusiastic followers — rather than a moderately liberal candidate like Biden.
A large ground operation in the state, which Buttigieg has invested millions into, is also necessary. Biden’s campaign, which is currently strapped for cash and already spending far more than it’s bringing in. So, it doesn’t have the same resources as his rivals for advertising and organizers.
Instead, Democrats in the state, who spoke with the Washington Examiner, say Biden must have maximum face time with voters and rely on supporters to spread his message.
Biden is projecting an air of confidence about his standing in Iowa and beyond.
“I am the clear front-runner. I’m ahead in the national average of all the polls by 70%,” he said Thursday in Atlanta. “I’m not counting on the polls, but the fact is I’m ahead in almost every one of the toss-up states by a substantial margin.”
