How intent are Democratic voters on ousting President Trump?
A fresh poll reveals that nearly 58% of them would prefer a 2020 nominee they disagree with on most issues, as long as they believe he or she would likely defeat Trump, with just 34% backing a contender they tend to agree with most of the time but who appears likely to lose.
That might read like typical voter concerns about electability.
But Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth poll, said his national survey of registered Democrats exposed a pragmatism among rank-and-file voters on the Left that is the product of an unusually intense desire to beat the incumbent president of the opposing party. Historically, he said, a primary voter’s desire for electability, and ideological compatibility, have been more closely aligned.
Most primary voters, either Democrat or Republican, “never took seriously the need to make that choice” between electability and ideology, Murray told the Washington Examiner, referring to past elections where an incumbent president was running for reelection. “So, Democrats in 2004, or Republicans in 2012 — they wanted electability but [didn’t] think they [had] to give up their issue alignment to get that.”
Democrats considering their choices in the party’s crowded 2020 primary are so focused on dispatching Trump, Murray explained, that they are paying extra attention to what that might require, and making a different calculation.
“What’s interesting is that we do see a number of Democrats who are pondering: ‘I might have to back a candidate I don’t agree with, and I’m fine with that.’ We haven’t seen that kind of sentiment before,” Murray said.
The latest Monmouth poll was conducted via telephone May 16-20. The margin of error for the subsample of registered Democrats or voters who “lean toward” the Democratic Party was 5.4 percentage points.
On the question of doing what it takes to limit Trump to a single White House term, Democratic women appear significantly more pragmatic than Democratic men. In the poll, 64% of women, a critical cohort, said they would prefer a nominee they disagree with who is stronger against the president over a likely contender who is better on their issues, versus just 49% of men who said the same.
On this front, older voters are slightly more pragmatic than younger voters. According to the Monmouth survey, 62% of voters 50 years old and up and 55% of voters ages 18-49 would vote for a nominee they disagree with who was tougher competition for Trump over a standard-bearer they share more values with who they believe would come up short against the president.
In the national Monmouth poll, former Vice President Joe Biden led among potential Democratic primary voters with 33%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., with 15%, Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., with 11%, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., with 10%.
