Before dipping our toes into the upcoming NFL season, let’s take a moment to reminisce about the finale of the last: the Patriots vs. the Eagles in the Super Bowl. For all the action and subplots, two memorable moments were overlooked.
The first was the decisive snap, Nick Foles to Zach Ertz, for the touchdown that put Philadelphia ahead 38-33 ere the two-minute warning. The play design was aesthetically beautiful—aesthetic beauty in athletics does not get enough attention.
Philadelphia faced 3rd-and-7 on the New England 11. The Eagles trailed 33-32, so a field goal would’ve given them the lead. But then New England could win the other way with a field goal of its own. A touchdown would’ve forced the Patriots to play for a touchdown.
The Eagles lined up with a trips right (three wide receivers on the right). Ertz, the Eagles’ tall tight end—their answer to Rob Gronkowski—split left. Tailback Jay Ajayi was to the left of Foles.
Presnap, Ajayi began to sprint from left to right. His motion was clearly headed to a spot behind the three guys who lined up wide right. As soon as Ajayi started to get wide, he held up an arm in the “I’m open” gesture. This made it look to the New England defense like the play would be a college-style quick sideways pass to the running back, screened by the three trips guys.
New England bought the fake, which Ajayi sold by twisting his head around like he was expecting the ball. The Patriots high safety reacted by sprinting in the direction Ajayi was moving, abandoning the center of the field. That left Ertz single-covered by the low safety, Devin McCourty, who is 5-10; Ertz is 6-5. He ran a quick slant and got “across the face” of McCourty for a touchdown. The point of the play all along had been to isolate the tall Ertz on a shorter defensive back with no help in centerfield.
Philadelphia had this call in its playbook during the season but had not used it, just as the pass-back to the quarterback that scored at the end of the first half had been in the playbook all season unused. Because the Eagles had not run these plays, New England couldn’t benefit from film study—and bought the fakes on both late touchdown passes in the first half and second half. What a way to win the Super Bowl!
Peter King of NBC Sports reported that Doug Pederson of the Eagles wanted to ensure that Philly had a couple of never-seen red zone calls ready for the Super Bowl. Bringing never-seen action to a big game is a rule of thumb that a surprising number of football coaches don’t observe. In this instance, add that the rumors about Bill Belichick spying on the Rams in the 2002 Saint Louis-New England Super Bowl involved filming red-zone plays. If you could know one thing from an opponent’s playbook, you’d benefit most from knowing his red zone plays. So Pederson put in new plays for this situation, and both took the Patriots by surprise.
Then again, in New England’s upset Super Bowl victory over the then-St. Louis Rams, the Rams punted on 4th-and-1 from midfield. The Rams had the number-one offense in the NFL entering that title game, yet they wouldn’t try for one single yard—and lost, of course. In the Giants’ 1991 Super Bowl upset victory over Buffalo, the Bills entered with the league’s top offense, yet punted on 4th-and-1—and lost, of course.
Belichick was on the sideline both times: as head coach in 2002 and as defensive coordinator in 1991. Both times the hot-offense team that was afraid to try for one single yard walked away the loser. Surely Belichick would remember not to send out a kicker on 4th-and-1! Which leads to the other overlooked moment of the Eagles-Flying Elvii Super Bowl.
Facing 4th-and-1 on the Philadelphia 8 in the first half, trailing on the scoreboard, Belichick sent in a kicker. Outraged, the football gods pushed the try wide. The New England offense was red-hot and would go on to compile a Super Bowl-record 613 yards gained. Yet Belichick was afraid to try for one single yard—and just like other head coaches who were afraid to try for one single yard, had to watch the opponents stand in a confetti shower at the end.
The Eagles, of course, went for it on their 4th-and-1.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback thinks the lingering question of last season is whether NFL head coaches—who in general send out the kicker not to maximize the chance of victory but to avoid being criticized—finally will see the light on fourth-down attempts. I’ll repeat a stat from last season’s final column:
In Tuesday Morning Quarterback news, I’m back and I’m bad! Well, I’m back. The column resumes, every Tuesday through that Super Bowl thing you may have heard about. First, TMQ’s AFC preview:
Baltimore. The Ravens feel like a juggernaut, but their Super Bowl moment recedes into the past—five years ago, with just one Baltimore postseason appearance since. Joe Flacco feels like a star quarterback, throwing for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Nevermores’ 2013 Lombardi run. But Flacco has won only one postseason contest since. The Ravens feel like monsters of the AFC North, but they’ve lost three in a row to the Steelers. And Baltimore feels like a team known for being poised under pressure, but couldn’t keep Pittsburgh out of the end zone as the clock expired on Christmas Day 2016, in that season’s decisive game, then allowed Cincinnati a 49-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-long as the clock expired on New Year’s Eve 2017, missing the playoffs again as a result.
There’s a chance Baltimore will open strong, as two of its first four are evening events on national primetime. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 12-2 in primetime. The team’s fifth game is versus Cleveland—under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 18-2 against the Browns 2.0. These schedule favors could add up to Baltimore leading the division out of the gate.
Departing general manager Ozzie Newsome traded back more than once in the draft to acquire additional picks, in the process adding rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. TMQ thinks Jackson has a good chance of being a solid NFL starter.
Buffalo. There are many references in this column to the Bills because they have been super-active in the trade market. Maybe new general manager Brandon Beane is getting paid on commission.
Early in the draft, Buffalo tried to trade for Denver’s first selection, number five overall, to tab quarterback Josh Allen. The Broncos declined. See the ramifications for Denver below; for Buffalo, failure of the trade attempt would prove great news. When City of Tampa was on the clock with the seventh choice, the Bills were able to consummate a deal and choose Allen at a price lower than what they’d been willing to pay Denver. That is, Buffalo came out ahead on being rebuffed.
The Bills offered the Broncos both their number-one choices—selections 12 and 22 overall—plus a second-round pick. The Buccaneers agreed to trade the chance to draft Allen for the 12th choice, plus two second-round picks. This left Buffalo holding the 22nd overall choice, which it converted into Tremaine Edmunds. Had the Broncos taken Buffalo’s offer, the Bills would have been out of the running for Edmunds. Instead they got the quarterback they coveted and still had ammunition for another major transaction. This was good luck—and good luck is not something the Bills have enjoyed much of since the days of Jim Kelly and Bruce Smith.
Netting numerous moves, the Bills invested two number-ones, two number-twos, and a three in Allen and Edmunds. That leaves Beane in approximately the same position as Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan (see below). If Allen and Edmunds become stars, Beane will become a sports-management star. If one succeeds and the other is a bust, Buffalo’s draft will be average. If both Allen and Edmunds are busts, Beane will be reading the regulations of New York State unemployment compensation.
When the Bills host the Patriots on Monday Night Football, it will be the first Monday night home game for Buffalo in a decade. In the Bills’ previous two Monday home games, Buffalo lost by a combined three points, both times leading until giving up a score in the final seconds, ere the clock struck midnight.
The Bills-Flying Elvii contest will be held at New Era Field, so named because of a promotional fee from the lid company. For many years TMQ has contended this facility should be called Robert Kalsu Field.
During the anthem-kneeling controversy, NFL owners have made a great show of congratulating themselves on their love of military service. But when it comes to the sole American professional athlete who gave his life on the battlefield in Vietnam, the NFL’s corporate-welfare ownership class couldn’t care less about honoring the fallen—the owners care only about money.
To top it off, the place where the Bills play was built at taxpayer expense and has continued to receive extensive public subsidies. Yet rather than name this publicly owned stadium to honor a hero of public service, naming-rights income slips into the pockets of the NFL’s feudal billionaire class. But wag-wag-wag go the owners’ fingers about how other people are not patriotic enough!
Why Is Kneeling Considered Respectful at a Worship Service and Offensive at a Sports Event? The anthem controversy continues. ESPN’s solution: pretend it’s not happening.
Cleveland. The Browns 2.0 have enjoyed the greatest draft bonanza ever, exceeding the Cowboys after the Hershel Walker trade. In addition to consecutive first-overall selections, in the past 10 drafts the Browns have had 16 number-ones, 14 number-twos, 13 number-threes, and 14 number-fours. No NFL team outside Cleveland has known such draft-day excess.
So can the Browns possibly avoid being good in 2018? (Don’t answer that!)
Blown first choice has followed blown first choice: Trent Richardson, Johnny Manziel, Justin Gilbert, Phil Taylor, Barkevious Mingo, Brandon Weeden . . . the list goes on of highly chosen busts during the Browns’ bonanza. Cleveland just unloaded Corey Coleman, chosen 15th overall in 2016, to Buffalo for a seventh-round pick, which is less than investors got back on Argentinian bonds. Key to the trade was that the Bills assumed the guarantees remaining on Coleman’s deal. Recovering some salary cap space meant this particular blown pick was merely a fiasco, not an outright disaster like so many recent Browns number-ones.
What about the latest Browns 2.0 top selections? Defensive end Myles Garrett, the draft’s first overall choice in 2017, played only 49 percent of the Browns’ defensive snaps in 2017. Now Cleveland adds the first overall choice of 2018, Baker Mayfield. Will he join the party by not playing much?
Letting Mayfield hold a clipboard for a season would postpone the moment when Cleveland’s new general manager John Dorsey gets hammered for yet another instance of the Browns choosing the wrong guy. Perhaps Mayfield will turn out to be the right guy. But in the backs of the minds of Cleveland management must be the knowledge that as soon as Mayfield takes the field, if he doesn’t win, the boos will shower down.
Tyrod Taylor may hold the reins in 2018. He will never be Aaron Rodgers, but he had a winning record at Buffalo while throwing 51 touchdown passes against just 16 interceptions. Taylor compiled his pretty-good outcomes despite coaching dysfunction under the buffoonish Rex Ryan, and despite four offensive coordinators in three seasons.
Regardless of whether Mayfield or Taylor lines up on opening day, the Browns will be on their 29th starting quarterback in the 19 years since their return to Cleveland.
During the offseason, Cleveland gave Jarvis Landry a megabucks deal with $34 million guaranteed—and Landry is a slot receiver. This is more indication that playing the slot increases in importance in contemporary football (along with the nickel corner, who defends the slot). The 2018 Football Outsiders Almanac—approximately 10,000 times better than all other football annuals combined—shows that in 2017, NFL defenses had at least five defensive backs on the field about 70 percent of the time. That tells you that slot receivers and nickelbacks are starters in today’s game.
Cincinnati. Summing trades and free agency moves, Cincinnati sent veteran center Russell Bodine, quarterback A.J. McCarron, and the 12th overall selection of the 2018 draft to Buffalo for tackle Cordy Glenn, linebacker Preston Brown, and rookie center Billy Price. These transactions may be fine as far as they go, but do any seem they will alter the fact that the Bengals have not won a postseason contest since the elder George Bush was president? Touts were expecting the Bengals to make a major move this offseason. Instead—Cordy Glenn.
Cincinnati’s big offseason decision was to retain coach Marvin Lewis, who has run the Bengals for 15 years and is 0-7 in the playoffs. As this column notes, with the context of a timid league, Lewis is the NFL’s most hyper-conservative coach—more than once ordering punts on 4th-and-1 when trailing in the second half of a postseason contest. Should the Trick-or-Treats reach the postseason this year and honk out again, Lewis will pass Jim Mora (Mora the Elder) for most NFL seasons coached without a playoff win.
Cincinnati faithful recall all too well the club’s 2016 postseason meltdown versus Pittsburgh. Cincinnati led with 22 seconds remaining; Pittsburgh was at midfield; an incomplete pass and the Bengals drought at long last ends. Instead Cincinnati was called for unsportsmanlike conduct on consecutive snaps, positioning Pittsburgh for the winning field goal. Queen City residents must have seen visions of that contest in their heads during this winter’s men’s March Madness, when the University of Cincinnati and Xavier University, both located in Cincinnati, entered the second round as heavy favorites, with their records a combined 50-9, both built large second half leads and both lost—on the same day, in the same gym!
Denver. Two years ago, Denver beat Carolina in the Super Bowl via relentless pressure on the passer. The Broncos are 14-18 since. Having spent the fifth choice of the 2018 draft on pass rusher Bradley Chubb, Denver may be able to restore its winning tactic. Adding pass rush may prove more important to the season than whatever new quarterback Case Keenum brings to the table.
John Elway turned down the above-noted trade proposal from Buffalo to hold his cards and select Chubb. The offer was picks 12, 22, and 53. How did this decision work out for Denver?
In Chubb, Denver got the draft’s most-sought-after edge guy. At 12 overall, Elway could have had the draft’s second-most-coveted pass rusher, Marcus Davenport. At 22, Elway would have had his choice of blue-chippers Rashaan Evans, Isaiah Wynn, and D.J. Moore, any of which would have been opening-day starters for the Broncs. (Wynn is now injured, but that was unknowable at the time.) At 53, Elway could have chosen any of several highly regarded defensive backs, or picked offensive lineman Brian O’Neill, with a good chance whomever Elway chose at #53 would start immediately for Denver too. In sum, Elway turned down the chance for a historic infusion of talent to the Broncos’ roster, to select one defensive end. Chubb had better bring it.
Fun fact: during the offseason, the Broncos claimed cornerback C.J. Smith off waivers from Cleveland. That is to say, claimed a guy who was cut from a 0-16 team.
Houston. Among the most exciting regular season games last year was Texans at Seahawks, won by the hosts 41-38 with both starting quarterbacks throwing for more than 400 yards. Another exciting regular season game last year was Texans at Patriots, won by the defending champions 36-33 on a long touchdown with 23 seconds remaining with both quarterbacks throwing for more than 300 yards.
Both contests pitted rookie Deshaun Watson versus a heavily favored home team—in one case the defending champions, in the other the hardest team in the NFL to defeat on its own field. Though the contests ended with Houston losing, Watson played like a future Hall of Famer. Soon Watson would be out for the season, while other injuries would plague the Moo Cows. But these games offered an alluring foretaste.
The Texans’ prospects depend on the trainer’s room. Will Watson and Whitney Mercilus be themselves again? Will J.J. Watt ever be himself again? He’s only played in half a dozen contests in the last two seasons. While Watt has been sidelined, Jadeveon Clowney became a force. If Watt and Clowney are on the field together for a full season, while Watson and Mercilus are healthy, the Texans could be the AFC favorite.
In free agency the Texans offered a big-bucks contract to Aaron Colvin, who plays nickelback. Twenty years ago, slot corner was a low-priority position in salary terms, often manned by a “street” free agent. As rules have evolve to favor passing, the slot corner has become essential. Houston also signed defensive back Tyrann Mathieu and plans to play him only at strong safety. With Arizona, Mathieu played both safety positions, plus nickel linebacker. Devoting himself to one position may advance his career.
Houston won’t have to wait long for a test of manhood. The Texans open at New England, which has defeated them three straight, by a combined 97-49. Which way the Houston season goes will have a lot to do with this contest.
Indianapolis. TMQ scratches his head over why sports coaches become celebrities, considering that most of the time most coaches are pretty much doing the obvious. This fall there will be media fascination regarding new football head coaches Jon Gruden at the Raiders and Chip Kelly at UCLA. Kelly had a losing record in the NFL and managed the feat of being fired twice in less than 12 months; Gruden has not won a playoff game in 16 years. But they will be in the limelight because both are famous for being famous.
The new head coach who engages TMQ’s attention is the Colts’ not-famous Frank Reich. He has never been a head coach at any level, but last season was offensive coordinator for the team that won the laurels. In the Eagles’ final two outings under Reich, they posted 38 points versus Minnesota, the number-one defense, then hung 41 points on New England, the defending champion.
Also, you don’t bump into too many football coaches who have run a seminary. Yours truly wonders whether Reich will draw up plays with names like Elect Right, Sola Gloria Cross Seam. What will Reich the head coach decide when he faces his first moral quandary? As, inevitably, he will. We could argue for hours about whether theological concepts (say, predestination, to use the Reformed example) are nutty or magnificent. Most of the time what matters is how those who are genuine adherents of religions make ethical choices when their turn comes. Let’s see how Reich chooses.
Reich takes over a Colts squad that has bottomed out on a talent cycle linked to memorably bad drafts in 2013 and 2014. The Lucky Charms’ first choices in those years were used to trade for Trent Richardson and to select Bjorn Werner, both busts. Everybody else acquired by the Colts with 2013 and 2014 draft picks is gone from the Indianapolis roster, and in many cases OOF: “out of football.”
But the upside of a talent cycle may have begun. Last season the Colts performed fairly well despite 17 players on injured reserve going into Week 16. Injuries resulted in six different starters at center. Warren Sharp notes that despite all the inactive players, in 2017 the Colts led at the start of fourth quarter nine times. But they went on to notch just four wins. Sharp writes, “The 2017 Colts are the only team in the last 27 years to lose at least seven games which they led at halftime.”
One reason the Colts could not hold fourth quarter leads was unimaginative playcalling. In the fourth quarter, the Colts became super-predictable: two-thirds of the time, Sharp notes, they used the same formation on first down, then handed to the aging Frank Gore. These runs were stuffed, leading to passing situations Indianapolis couldn’t get out from under. If you’re going to throw when holding the lead in the fourth quarter, do it on first down, when the defense expects a run; not on third-and-long, when the defense expects a pass.
Running straight up the middle for no gain can make sense in the fourth quarter with a big lead, but with a close lead—the Colts’ typical 2017 situation—is bad tactics. One hopes Reich’s playcalling will not be predictable. After all, he arrives from the team that just used a throw from a tight end to a quarterback to win the Super Bowl.
In Praise of Big Guys. Quarterbacks got all the media attention in the 2018 NFL draft. If you or I were running a sportstalk show, we’d place the spotlight on quarterbacks, too. After all, the TMQ Rule of 90/90 states: 90 percent of fans have no idea who 90 percent of the players are. Even many ardent fans can’t name an offensive lineman on their favorite team. But though fans don’t care who plays the line, coaches do.
A couple of years ago the Raiders had a sparkling offensive line. Father Time has taken his due, and last season, Oakland’s blocking was poor; in the second Chiefs-Raiders contest, on a key 3rd-and-long, Oakland had six blockers to oppose four rushers, and barely so much as slowed the guy who got the sack. The result of declining offensive line play was that the Raiders used first- and third-round draft choices on offensive tackles. If the Raiders get good blocking in 2018, this may mean more to their fortunes than the arrival of Jon Gruden’s three-ring media circus.
One reason Andrew Luck’s been hurt is that he has been getting hit way too often. In response, Indianapolis used first- and second-round draft choices—including the sixth selection overall—on offensive linemen. If the Colts get good blocking in 2018, this may mean more to their fortunes than the arrival of Frank Reich.
Another TMQ maxim is that all quarterbacks suddenly become more talented when the blocking is good. In 2016, Oakland quarterback Derek Carr played like a star, but in 2017 he was blah. A lot of the explanation in both cases was up front. If Oakland’s offensive line perform improves, suddenly Carr will be a star again.
Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Tom Brady All Have That Cold, Icy Stare. In the fourth quarter of Game 7 of the Celtics-Cavs NBA series, Jayson Tatum did a highlight-reel dunk over LeBron James. Tatum started to strut while Boston teammate Marcus Morris performed the monster-movie roar that has been a basketball fad in recent seasons. James gave both a cold, icy stare. You know what happened next.
In the 1993 NBA Finals, the Suns seemed poised to win Game 6, setting up a Game 7 in Phoenix. With a lead in the fourth quarter, Phoenix’s Charles Barkley and Dan Majerle began clowning around on the court. Michael Jordan gave them a cold, icy stare. The Bulls went on a seemingly impossible comeback, with John Paxson hitting a long, go-ahead three-pointer with a few seconds remaining to take the league.
In both cases, players who had never won a title were celebrating when the game wasn’t even over—with an all-time great on the opponent’s side. Barkley and Majerle then, Morris and Tatum now, were begging the basketball gods to smite them down—and trust me, you don’t want to be smote. The icy stare that James and Jordan gave was like the icy stare that Tom Brady gave the Atlanta Falcons when their owner started dancing on the sideline before the 2017 Super Bowl was over.
Jax. How soon they forget: Jacksonville came within one quarter of the last Super Bowl.
In the AFC title tilt at New England, the Jaguars led 20-10 at the start of the fourth and had the ball. Then they went into their shell with the kind of predictable playcalling that long has been a Jacksonville issue. During the regular season, Jax predictably ran on first down. From the juncture of the 20-10 fourth quarter lead at New England, until panic time was reached with the Patriots ahead 24-20, Jax ran on every first down, never gaining more than a yard. In the fourth quarter the Flying Elvii were expecting first down runs. And that’s what they got.
The Jaguars’ predictable first-down calls built up to a punt on 4th-and-1 from midfield—yikes stripes! Jacksonville punted on 4th-and-1 at midfield with the Super Bowl on the line! You don’t need any other information to know which side carried the day.
(Note: this season, ye gods! yields to yikes stripes! as the Official Interjection of TMQ.)
Just as Miami cast its lot with Ryan Tannehill for the coming season, Jax decided to stick with Blake Bortles. Often he is derided by sportsyak. But he’s not bad and likely to play better in 2018 than anyone Jacksonville might have acquired in the draft or been able to afford in free agency. Sticking with Bortles is the win-now approach. Why not? This team pulled up just one quarter shy of that Super Bowl thing you might have heard about.
Sked note: The league front office seemed to give the back of its hand to Jacksonville. The Jaguars made the conference title game last season yet get only two primetime appearances in 2018. Drill down a bit and realize that, actually, 345 Park Avenue smiled on Jax. The Jaguars are on a 0-9 streak in games played in Pacific Time. But they don’t have to go to the West Coast in 2018; a couple of dates in Central Time are their farthest flights west.
Filling Judicial Vacancies Is Not “Packing” a Court. When Donald Trump was elected president, your columnist had these concerns: that Trump would start a shooting war, that he would start a trade war, and that he would nominate unqualified people for the Supreme Court. The first has not happened so far, but remains a discomfiting possibility, and also remains the primary reason I voted for Hillary Clinton. The second is happening, and economics is pretty clear on this conclusion: No one has ever won a trade war. They are always lose-lose.
As for court nominees, the fear seems misplaced. Trump has made two nominations for the Supreme Court and both are eminent jurists. Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh may not be your cups of tea. But both have outstanding qualifications and reputations. The worry about Trump naming a crackpot has not materialized.
In turn, the idea that it’s a sinister plot for whomever wins the White House to choose Supreme Court justices that suit his or her liking doesn’t make a whit of sense. When Barack Obama won the White House, he chose candidates of his liking. In all cases—Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Merrick Garland—Obama’s choices possessed outstanding qualifications. Then Trump won, and now he gets to choose candidates of his liking. That’s how it works.
Your columnist thinks Garland should have been confirmed, but that ship has sailed, and today is no cause to delay action on Kavanaugh. Nor was the impasse regarding Garland unique. As Adam White has shown, through American history more than two dozen Supreme Court nominees simply never reached the moment of aye-or-nay on the Senate floor.
Commentators including John Cassidy of the New Yorker find something inappropriate about Trump nominating people for the Court. Isn’t it the president’s duty to fill vacancies on the three levels of the federal judiciary? Cassidy calls Trump’s nominations “an outrageous power grab.” When Obama nominated liberals, was that outrageous? It is not a “power grab” for any White House to fill vacancies—it is the execution of presidential duty.
Aside: Cassidy also finds something sinister about Trump accepting office after losing the popular vote. What was he supposed to do, hand the keys to Clinton? Even if—and here we veer into science fiction—Trump were a highly public-spirited man who puts the national interest ahead of his own, and even if he believed his loss in the popular vote meant Clinton should run the country, he couldn’t have conceded the White House to her even had he tried. No legal mechanism exists for an Electoral College winner to defer to the loser.
There is an airtight argument for an amendment to replace the obsolete Electoral College with direct popular choice; this argument is detailed in my new book It’s Better Than It Looks. But screwed up though the Electoral College is, it was law in November 2016. When Trump won the delegate count, the Constitution named him president. Proceeding according to the Constitution is not “outrageous.”
The final point here is that commentators need to stop referring to nominating candidates for vacancies as “packing the court.” The term packing should be reserved for attempts to expand the number of seats on a court to dilute the votes of current judges or justices. In 1937, Franklin Roosevelt, one of my heroes, tried to add seats to the Supreme Court. Today some conservatives want to expand the number of seats in some federal appellate jurisdictions, to dilute existing votes. These are examples of attempts at packing.
But for any president to send up names to replace judges or justices who have retired or died is not packing a court! When politicians and commentators accuse a president of packing a court, what they almost always mean is, “My side lost, and I want that to change by magic.”
Jersey/B. The Jets spent a trio of number-two draft choices to move up from sixth overall to third overall, hoping for a blue-chip quarterback. Then it turned out that at sixth overall, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen were available. So now we know the Jets could have held the hand they were dealt and had either of the Joshes, plus three number-twos—and second-round choices usually translate into starting players.
If Sam Darnold becomes a star, nothing the Jets gave up for him will matter. If Darnold does not, Jersey/B general manager Mike Maccagnan will have made a sports-management blunder of epic proportions.
Kansas City. Netting a series of deals over about a year, the Chiefs traded Alex Smith, two number-one draft choices, a number-two pick, and a number-three selection for Patrick Mahomes, Breeland Speaks, and Kendall Fuller. If these players perform as well as touts expect, the deals will be seen as a sports management success. Plus the Chiefs should have big-play offense with Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce, all speed merchants at their positions.
One might counter that in 2017, Smith threw 28 touchdown passes to just five interceptions on the way to being the first Chief ever to led the league in passer rating—Len Dawson never did, Joe Montana never did. Yet Smith’s reward was being tossed on his keister. A huge signing bonus at Washington softened the impact from Smith’s point of view. And Smith is not to blame for Andy Reid’s 11-13 career postseason record; the whole Kansas City team seems to wheeze out in money time.
The Chiefs have the league’s best special teams coach, Dave Toub. Many teams were hoping to hire Toub away. To retain him, in the offseason the Chiefs gave Toub the title assistant head coach, plus second billing, above the offensive and defensive coordinators, on the team website.
LA/B. The NFL is cartographically challenged; the league thinks “New York” is in New Jersey. This year the Chargers (LA/B to this column) take the cake. When the Los Angeles Chargers play in Los Angeles versus the Rams, that’s listed as an away game; when they play in London versus the Titans, that’s listed as a home contest. So to travel 12 miles from their own field is “away” while traveling 5,500 miles through eight time zones is “home.”
Last season the Bolts lost their first four, then finished 9-3, just missing the postseason. Tuesday Morning Quarterback thinks this is the siren song of the San Diego beaches, calling to Chargers players—surf season in San Diego lasts till around Halloween. Only when they can’t surf anymore do Chargers guys get serious about football.
And last season the Chargers quietly finished fourth overall in offense. Why didn’t a top offense carry them to the playoffs? Kicker Younghoe Koo, born in South Korea, missed field goal attempts to win or tie in the closing seconds of three of LA/B’s first four contests. Okay, I admit I cannot prove that Kim Jong Un was broadcasting something from a satellite into Younghoe’s mind. But this seems the most entertaining explanation.
I, Reboot. Fox’s long-running action series 24 is going into a second reboot. TMQ’s take on the show was to list all the things Jack Bauer did as the clock ticked-ticked-ticked. My main conclusion was that Jack accomplished so much because he traveled during the commercials.
I neglected to offer a similar item on the first reboot, 24: Legacy, with Corey Hawkins as super-agent Eric Carter, replacing Kiefer Sutherland’s super-agent Bauer. The title really should have been 12: Half a Legacy, since the clock ticked-tick-ticked a mere 12 hours, not 24 as in prior iterations. Anyway, here’s what super-agent Carter did in 12 hours:
Killed 16 bad guys in 10 separate fights; blew up a construction site; rescued his wife from terrorists and took her into hiding; was hit by a speeding car and thrown into the air yet not hurt; jumped from a speeding truck without being hurt; needed mere seconds to knock unconscious three muscular guards; broke into a police station, stole something from an evidence locker, and escaped with dozens of armed officers unable to stop him; located an international terrorist who had eluded the CIA for years; knocked out a huge henchman with a single punch; rescued his wife from a drug gang and moved her to a different hiding place; located another international terrorist who also eluded the CIA for years; twice was strapped to chairs and broke free; moments after being beaten senseless by goons, was perfectly fine without medical treatment and won a fight in a burning building; persuaded a geeky computer whiz to go on a suicide mission; saved the geeky whiz, who was stabbed with a combat dagger then was perfectly fine without medical treatment; defused a bomb; beat up two cops; beat up two more cops; ran a four-minute mile (the show has a clock!) while wearing a heavy backpack; located a super-duper terrorist who had eluded the CIA for years; fabricated an elaborate disguise; infiltrated the inner rings of the Pentagon; took the Director of National Intelligence hostage without anyone noticing; accessed America’s most highly classified computer to discover shocking secrets unknown even to the president; rescued a 10-year-old girl who was surrounded by armed thugs; located yet another terrorist leader who had eluded the CIA for years; was shot at close range by a bad guy who was using a high-powered carbine, then recovered in seconds without medical treatment; needed 11 minutes (the show has a clock!) to drive from a remote farmhouse in the Virginia countryside to the Jordanian embassy in the center of D.C., then negotiate with the ambassador, then drive away from the center of D.C. to an abandoned cement plant, where, dodging machine-gun fire and explosions, he needed mere seconds to save the day.
It was the abandoned cement plant close to Embassy Row that got to me. I’ve driven around in the District of Columbia for years and really never come across an abandoned cement plant with such wide, empty spaces in all directions that setting off spectacular explosions would not be noticed by anyone.
And when will evildoers learn to restrain good guys to metal chairs rather than wooden ones? Both Bauer and Carter regularly smash wooden chairs they’ve been strapped to, then need mere seconds to kill muscular bad guys who just stand there looking surprised. In the Mission Impossible movies, Tom Cruise regularly is lashed to wooden chairs, suddenly smashes them and needs mere seconds to slaughter hulking henchmen. In bad guys school, why don’t they teach you to tie your victims to metal chairs?
Scene from bad guys school:
Instructor: Bruno, how many times do I have to tell you, the metal chair, not the wooden one! And choose the gun that never runs out of bullets!
Now class, in action TV the henchman must be vaguely ethnic but not belong to any discernible specific group. The key to this is the generic foreign accent. Repeat after me: “Give me the money or I kill the girl” is pronounced “Geev me ze munay or eye keel ze gurl.”
On 24: Legacy, Gerald McRaney played the father of Jimmy Smits. McRaney is six years older than Smits.
Miami. This team’s offensive stats from last season are not for the faint of heart. The Marine Mammals recorded just four rushing touchdowns. They were last in third down conversions and failed 17 times on fourth down. Philadelphia succeeded on 17 fourth down tries—that’s a Super Bowl number.
The 2017 Miami squad strung a 0-3 primetime steak in which it was outscored 112-45. Things got so bad that head coach Adam Gase called the team’s offense “garbage.” Perhaps this year the goal is to improve to comingled recyclables.
The expected return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill should help, though his career output is middle-of-the-road. In the draft, the Dolphins passed on quarterback Lamar Jackson once and on quarterback Mason Rudolph thrice. Tannehill better step up or the laid-back sun-worshipper Miami crowd will have cause for complaint.
In 2007, Bill Belichick spirited wide receiver Wes Welker away from the Dolphins, who never realized what they had with a highly effective, undrafted slot guy from Texas Tech. This offseason, Miami reverse-engineered that transaction by signing wide receiver Danny Amendola away from New England—and Amendola is a highly effective undrafted slot guy from Texas Tech.
New England. The butler did it. But what did Malcolm Butler do? Bill Belichick’s mysterious decision to remove the cornerback from the Patriots’ lineup card just before kickoff of Super Bowl LII has never really been explained. Leading up to the ultimate contest, Butler had been on the field for 98 percent of New England’s defensive snaps; suddenly he was a healthy scratch. The Patriots’ pass defense played well down the stretch in the regular season and during the first two postseason games. Then at the Super Bowl, with Butler benched and visibly crying, the Patriots pass defense allowed 373 passing yards by a backup quarterback, the Eagles scoring on 8 of 10 possessions. With Butler on the bench, the New England pass defense was awful.
The most common rumor is that Butler defied Belichick in some manner, and the New England coach would rather lose a Super Bowl than take a hit to his control-freak persona.
During the offseason there was some sort of discord between Belichick and Tom Brady, discord that must be deeper than Belichick’s control-freak insistence that his star quarterback’s personal trainer not step on team property. Is the Butler scratch the source of the discord?
Brady has done a fabulous job for the Patriots, and consistently accepted less than top dollar for his services. It can make free-market sense for Brady to agree to play for less than less-accomplished quarterbacks: Being at New England means rings, constant national TV exposure and endorsement income. But if the benching of Butler helped cause the Flying Elvii loss to the Nesharim, Brady may be steaming. Had New England defeated Philadelphia, Brady would have become the first gentleman in NFL annals to possess six Super Bowl rings. As is, he’s tied with Charles Haley at five, and one can only wonder if he will ever get another chance. If Brady’s career pulls up one shy of that sixth ring, he may always blame Belichick for the mysterious decision to scratch Butler.
Deep inside Brady must love Butler, whose last-second goal-line interception versus Seattle allowed Brady to collect ring number four. Suppose in that Lombardi contest, Seattle had just run up the middle rather than make its inexplicable decision to throw. Brady would have walked off that day at 3-3 in the Super Bowl; sportswriters would have begun mulling Brady’s unrealized potential.
Instead he walked off that day at 4-2 and Sports Illustrated declared, on its cover, that he had become “an immortal.” Who knew that taping your ankles can confer immortality! What changed Brady from disappointment to divinity? A play that happened when he wasn’t even on the field—a play made by Malcolm Butler.
Considering that New England went into the draft with four choices in the first two rounds and did not trade up for a quarterback, it appears Belichick expects Brady to get over any hard feelings and play for as long as he can. Belichick did expend his highest pick on an offensive tackle to protect Brady, replacing star left tackle Nate Solder, who departed in free agency.
Sadly for Flying Elvii faithful, first-round offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn is already done for the season with an injury. Wynn was a Belichick unorthodox choice because, at 6-2, he was viewed by scouts as “too short.” Contemporary scouts want offensive tackles to be 6-4 or taller, because height helps them counter the swim and the dip-and-rip, which are moves used by pass rushers. Defensive tackles, by contrast, rarely are tall, since being relatively low to the ground helps when defensive tackles need to submarine at the center of the line. The result is that at every high school varsity tryout, the tall guys are assigned to be offensive tackles and the fireplug guys become defensive tackles.
With Solder gone to Jersey/A and Wynn in rehab till 2019, will Brady be guarded by yet another Belichick steal? The Flying Elvii coach is noted for snatching players other teams didn’t know how to use—Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan—and turning them into stars. During the 2018 draft, Belichick acquired Santa Clara offensive tackle Trent Brown for the equivalent of 60 guilders and some wampum: in this case, a flip-flop of mid-round choices. Brown fits the contemporary left tackle mold, in that he’s very tall. If Brown starts at left tackle for the conference defending champions, the 49ers will be seen as having committed a major gaffe—and Belichick as having picked their pockets, ala Peter Minuit.
Oakland. The Raiders have had nine head coaches since Jon Gruden departed, with two winning seasons in that 16-year span. Now he’s back, and he will be Gruden the Elder to this column. Jay, coach of Washington, will be Gruden the Younger.
During the offseason the Raiders added Martavis Bryant, who washed out in the serious-football atmosphere of Pittsburgh, and now lands in the hey-whatever atmosphere of Oakland. No one has ever done less with his ability than Bryant. The Steelers ended up using the pick they obtained for Bryant on Mason Rudolph. TMQ has 10 bucks (okay, 8.62 euro) that says Pittsburgh got the better of this transaction.
The Raiders are likely to move to Las Vegas in 2020. Their new field there will cost at least $1.8 billion, with the NFL paying $850 million. The rest is playing with house money, that is to say, with Nevada taxes.
The largest chunk of public money, $750 million, will come from a Clark County hotel tax that was sold to voters as “only” impacting out-of-towners. Local pols like to say that hotel and rental-car taxes “only” harm out-of-towners. Even if you don’t care about macroeconomics, the “only harm outsiders” claim is nonsense. Residents of a city with high hotel and car-rental taxes sometimes need accommodations or short-term cars for relatives and friends.
More important, like all forms of taxes, hotel and car-rental taxes discourage business activity. Yours truly recently rented a car from Hertz in Providence, Rhode Island. The car was $169.45, plus $66.22 in taxes, an effective 39-percent tax. High levies like that discourage people from renting cars. The hotel tax in Vegas already is about 12 percent; when it rises to nearly 20 percent to subsidize the Raiders, this will discourage Vegas tourism. People aren’t stupid, though politicians like to think so. Word will get around that Vegas hotels are tacking on 20 percent.
Taxes for the Raiders’ stadium will transfer nearly a billion dollars from average Nevada residents and Vegas tourists to the NFL’s feudal ownership aristocracy. Donald Trump hammers the NFL on politics—why is he silent about its socialized economics?
Gruden the Elder is reviving Raiders-Chiefs animosity that was once a staple of NFL trash talk. Does it really matter if Franchise A wants to hammer Franchise B? No, but it makes sports more fun.
Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished on a 10-2 stretch, but in both the losses forgot how to play defense. The week before Christmas, Pittsburgh allowed New England to drive the length of field drive after the two-minute warning. Then in the playoffs, Pittsburgh gave up 45 points to the low-voltage Jacksonville attack. Both these defensive breakdowns happened at home, within view of those three mighty rivers.
Both games held bad omens. The Jaguars became the sole visitor to win twice at Pittsburgh in the same season. Yet another conk-out against the Patriots left Mike Tomlin 3-11 versus New England—he’s 121-56 versus all other teams.
The Steelers are a gold-standard operation in several respects. Most Super Bowl trophies; in a league of turmoil, just three head coaches in the last 50 years; ironclad community support. But the Steelers may be at the end of a talent cycle, with their defense flummoxed and Ben Roethlisberger declining.
Plus, a pattern of scapegoating has emerged. After Pittsburgh lost in the postseason at Denver in 2012, Tomlin scapegoated offensive coordinator Bruce Arians; after a 2015 playoffs loss to Baltimore, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was scapegoated; after this winter’s postseason loss to Jacksonville, offensive coordinator Todd Haley was scapegoated. Tomlin made some terrible tactical decisions in each of these three big losses and has been consistently out-coached by Belichick. Yet somehow he’s never to blame—somebody else always is.
The Steelers’ braintrust has been griping about a sked with five night games, just as the 2017 schedule had five night dates. But combined, 2017 and 2018 imposed on the Steelers just one West Coast trip—a huge schedule-maker favor to Pittsburgh. NFL organizations often whine about the schedule to set up excuses in advance. Every team’s sked has good and bad aspects. Just man up and play.
Tennessee. Only a few months ago, the Flaming Thumbtacks posted their first playoff win in 15 years, then immediately fired their head coach. That’s so ridiculous next you will tell me the Toronto Raptors finished with the best record in the NBA Eastern Conference and immediately fired their head coach! Oh wait, that happened. A few weeks after Dwane Casey was fired by Toronto, he was named NBA Coach of the Year. That’s so ridiculous next you will tell me that not long ago the Denver Nuggets made the playoffs, saw their head coach named NBA Coach of the Year, then immediately fired their coach. Oh wait, that happened—to George Karl following the 2012-2013 season.
Denver cashiered Karl because management was mad the team did not advance past the first round of the postseason. This has not been a problem since, because in the years after firing Karl, the Nuggets have not reached the playoffs at all. So will the Toronto Raptors and Tennessee Titans find that firing the head coach right after a playoff appearance results in no more playoff appearances?
New Titans boss Mike Vrabel is a product of the Patriot Way and presumably will instill it: no fun, but every aspect of the program well-managed. After Bill Belichick’s mysterious decision (noted above) to bench Malcolm Butler for the Super Bowl, Vrabel, who knows New England personnel very well, did not hesitate to offer Butler a megabucks contract.
Deshaun Watson looked great early last season then went down injured. There were four other 2017 first-round draft selections held back in their rookie campaigns by injuries – Malik Hooker at Indianapolis, Mike Williams at LA/B, Jonathan Allen at the R*dsk*ns, and Corey Davis at Tennessee. Davis was a leap of faith by the Flaming Thumbtacks, who used the fifth overall choice of 2017 on him, though he played at lower-tier Western Michigan. If Davis breaks out in 2018, Marcus Mariota will have a top target.
Tennessee has replaced its kids-pajamas uni look with … a kids-pajamas uni look. We learned in the process that the helmet symbol TMQ calls a “flaming thumbtack” is supposed to be a sword. Sorry, it still looks like a flaming thumbtack. Did the Titans of mythology wield swords? Maybe this team could be renamed the Tennessee Tethys, or the Tennessee Iapetuses.
NBA Nonsense Update. To kick off this summer’s NBA free agency, the canny management at Denver inked a $148 million guaranteed extension with veteran Nikola Jokić, only slightly less than the amount the Lakers would pay to land LeBron James. But there’s a pretty big difference between James and Jokić. While James has appeared in 239 NBA playoff games—that’s three complete seasons in the playoffs—Jokić has never bounced a ball in even one NBA playoff contest. Which makes him a perfect fit for the Nuggets’ program!
A couple of days after their canny offer to Jokić—how long till Denver becomes desperate to unload this guy?—the Nuggets traded Wilson Chandler and a second-round draft pick to the 76ers, who gave back: nothing. Essentially Philadelphia agreed to absorb Chandler’s $13 million cap weight; Denver sent Philadelphia the draft choice as compensation for taking on the club’s financial blunder. Thus the market sets the value of an NBA second-round pick at $13 million. A year ago when Golden State purchased the second-round choice employed to select Jordan Bell, the price was only $3.5 million. This means the market for NBA draft picks is booming! There are so many bad guaranteed deals out there, the ability to select a player in the second round, where initial years are not guaranteed, grows more attractive. Perhaps there should be futures trading in NBA second round choices.
The Chandler transaction is another indicator that in the contemporary NBA, getting rid of unwanted players is the summit of the general manager’s art. Recently Charlotte traded Dwight Howard to Brooklyn for Timofey Mozgov; within days Howard had been discarded while Mozgov was traded again. Thus both Brooklyn and Charlotte got rid of players: the consummate NBA trade. The Hornets at least gained a backup in the transactions, while Brooklyn ended up with nothing. A perfect fit for the Nets’ program!
The Clippers (LA/B in NBA terms) traded Sam Dekker plus cash to the Cleveland Cavaliers for the rights to two European players who have never appeared in an NBA contest and never will—that is, for nothing. The Clips longed to be rid of Dekker’s salary cap amortization. But the details of NBA contracts make simply waiving a player problematic: The transaction had to be structured as a trade. In the trade, LA/B gave up a player and money in return for nothing, just to help improve its bookkeeping.
When the Lakers (LA/A in NBA terms) hoped to be rid of Julius Randle to free up cap space for a LeBron-led roster reshuffle, they couldn’t merely waive Randle, they had to “renounce” him. Perhaps someone in a robe stood at the Lakers’ gym door and declared, “Blasphemer! We renounce thee!”
Free agency found Devin Booker, at a max deal of $158 million guaranteed, better paid than LeBron. Does Booker have more in common with James or with Nikola Jokić? The answer is Jokić. Like him, Booker has never appeared in an NBA playoff contest.
Of this summer’s largest NBA deals—$160 million to Chris Paul, $158 million to Booker, $156 million to James, and $148 million to Jokić—the $156 million went for a once-a-generation athlete who has taped his ankles in nine NBA Finals; the $160 million went to one of the league’s top stars; the other $306 million went to a couple of guys who between them have a blank NBA postseason stat line. With Booker and Jokić in uniform, the Suns and Nuggets are a combined 187-305, yet their teams pay them as if they were LeBron James. Don’t ever let anyone tell you the free market is rational.
Next Week. TMQ’s NFC preview, plus why the league’s new catch/no catch rule may substitute one tedious argument for another.
