President Trump’s allies are preparing to take a victory lap after he goes on trial in the Senate for pressuring Ukraine to investigate Democrats.
They anticipate saying the Senate cleared Trump of any wrongdoing. The outcome is almost as inevitable as Trump’s impeachment in the House, and the “marketer-in-chief” is expected to take full advantage.
“This moment will be a huge shot in the arm for the Trump presidency,” said Jason Miller, a 2016 Trump campaign spokesman. “The Democrats have launched so many failing attacks, and President Trump has been vindicated and cleared so many times.”
Though diplomats and current and former White House staff have confirmed a whistleblower’s account that Trump wanted Ukraine to investigate the 2016 election as well as Joe and Hunter Biden, and possibly withheld about $400 million in foreign aid, Republicans remain unified.
Already, Trump has argued that he has fallen victim to a persistent “witch hunt” that began with allegations he colluded with Russia in 2016, a claim for which special counsel Robert Mueller could find no evidence.
“It’s just a continuation of the Russian witch hunt, which turned out to be phony,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
To convict Trump and remove him from office requires two-thirds of the Senate, meaning at least 20 Republican senators would need to defect.
In the first House floor vote on impeachment, Republicans were unified, joined by two Democrats. New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew justified bucking his party by saying the vote would boomerang.
“We’re going to have the same presidential candidate who will be able to say that he was exonerated,” Van Drew said.
Miller said there’s likely to be a bump in the polls for Trump against Democratic rivals and that ultimately the impeachment and acquittal won’t be a significant influence on the general election.
A Senate trial actually could upend the Democratic presidential primaries, Miller predicted. The up-to-six-week spectacle could come as Democrats go to the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire early next year. Six Democratic senators are running for president and may have to decide between fulfilling their constitutional duties and campaigning for office.
Former Vice President Biden is unlikely to benefit from the focus on his son earning $50,000 per month consulting for a Ukrainian energy company. The then-vice president was the U.S. “point person” on Ukraine policy, Miller added.
“President Trump will certainly use an acquittal to his advantage,” said Harvard Law School Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz, adding, “It would also make it less likely that he would be impeached a second time during his second term if reelected.”
Although many facts are known to show that Trump pushed Ukraine to investigate Democrats, acquittal could wash away some of the stain of impeachment, which has been leveled by the House just twice before in history.
Historically, there’s no useful parallel. President Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 during his second term in office. President Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 during his second term before the House could vote to impeach.
Only President Andrew Johnson sought reelection after impeachment. He lost at an 1868 party convention.
“He was acquitted by one vote. Not much to tout,” said Stephanie McCurry, a history professor at Columbia University.
Unlike Trump, Johnson lacked significant support in either major party. He had helped Republican Abraham Lincoln win reelection on a unity ticket in 1864, alienating Democrats. Then he sought to hinder Republican Reconstruction policies, infuriating the victors of the Civil War.
Eric Foner, who teaches at Columbia University and is an expert on Reconstruction, said Johnson’s lawyer sought to win Senate votes by promising that Johnson would “behave” during his eight months in office following the vote, meaning he would no longer attempt to block congressional policies in the South.
“After being acquitted, he didn’t do much for the next eight months,” Foner said. “The idea of Trump behaving himself is — then why do you have Trump? Trump is not going to change his ways. If Trump is acquitted, he will be vindicated in his own mind.”
