Rep. Katie Hill’s sudden resignation from Congress may give the GOP a chance to regain a seat long held by Republicans.
Hill, 32, became the first Democrat in decades to win in California’s 25th District.
After a phenomenal fundraising effort, Hill bested a slew of Democrats in the 2018 primary before beating two-term Republican Steven Knight by 9 points in November.
Republicans suddenly are eyeing a chance to retake the seat, and some campaign analysts predict the GOP’s chances have improved now that a special election will be called to fill the vacancy.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted the 25th District from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” which means the race is now more competitive and less safe for Democrats.
A March special election will be scheduled to fill the vacancy, and Cook Political Editor Dave Wasserman wrote Monday that the contest “could create a unique opportunity” for the GOP, whose top candidate is decorated Iraq War veteran Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita.
“Katie Hill did the right thing by resigning from Congress,” Garcia said. “The past week has been a complete distraction from the important work that needs to be done, and it’s time for our district to move forward and unite around a leader.”
Garcia, who is the son of immigrants and was a Super Hornet strike fighter pilot in the Navy, describes himself as a “pro-business, pro-taxpayer political outsider.”
The district is 35% Hispanic.
“As a ten-year Raytheon executive and a Hispanic step-son of an LAPD officer, he could appeal outside the GOP base and already had $322,000 at the end of September to take on Hill,” Wasserman wrote.
Other campaign analysts believe Democrats can hold onto the seat despite Hill’s sudden resignation and the sordid circumstances surrounding her departure.
“While open seats and vacant seats are generally regarded as better takeover opportunities because incumbents are reelected at a high rate, Hill’s departure may make it easier for Democrats because they can rally behind a candidate without the salacious headlines,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections website.
Among the Democratic candidates is state Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who jumped into the race on Monday and represents half of the district in the state legislature.
Gonzales lists Secretary of State Alex Padilla as a potential candidate, as well as state Sen. Henry Stern and Bryan Caforio, who was on the ballot in 2016 and lost to Knight.
On the Republican side, Knight has signaled he may try to win back the seat, and City Councilwoman Angela Underwood-Jacobs may also run in the primary. She’s raised about half as much money as Garcia.
Gonzeles said a contested GOP special primary will be difficult for Republicans, especially if it takes place on March 3, the same day as the Democratic presidential primary.
Hill was the first Democrat to win the seat since 1990, but the electorate has shifted away from the GOP. Voters picked Hillary Clinton by nearly 7 points in 2016 and backed Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by just 1 point in 2012.
“Republicans will have to weigh spending millions of dollars combating the partisan trend to win a difficult seat they will have difficulty holding less than a year later in the regular 2020 elections,” Gonzales wrote.
Gonzales said he has kept the seat listed as “likely Democrat.”
