Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has been mercilessly mocked for spending the majority of his bid in his basement. But in the closing week of the 2020 campaigns, he’s venturing deep into so-called reach states, including Iowa.
Iowa is widely considered to be a toss-up contest in this cycle’s race for the White House. But while the polls are close, Trump may have a structural advantage thanks to Iowa’s “No Party” voters, the state’s term for independents.
Trump dominated 2016 Democratic standard-bearer Hillary Clinton in Iowa, claiming the state’s six electoral votes by almost 10 percentage points. Four years later, Biden has an average lead of less than a point, a significant dip in support, according to RealClearPolitics.
Despite its conservative reputation, Iowa has historically leaned Democratic at the presidential level.
Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford explained that Iowa had supported a Democratic nominee every cycle between 1988 and 2012, except 2004. And in 2000, the state’s voters backed 2000 Democratic pick Al Gore over former President George W. Bush by 0.32% of a point.
“So, Iowa was one of only three states that flipped in 2004 compared to 2000, and that’s because the Bush people came out to Northwestern Iowa, which is one of the strongest Republican areas of the country,” Goldford said.
But Trump performed well in Iowa because he ran against one of “the most despised” women in American politics amid a tide of “white, working-class resentment” that she didn’t acknowledge, according to Goldford. By tapping into that sentiment, 206 formerly pro-Obama counties across the country supported Trump instead, 31 of which were in Iowa, the highest concentration nationwide.
“One of the things I’ll be looking at election night is to see what’s happening in those counties. Is Biden winning them, or is Trump holding on to them?” Goldford said of the counties, mostly in eastern Iowa.
To University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle, Biden’s itinerary helped with optics, projecting confidence before the Nov. 3 contest. But with limited time and resources, it’s likely rooted in his team’s belief Iowa was truly in reach as well.
While polling suggests Democrats care more about the coronavirus pandemic and racial justice and Republicans prioritize abortion and immigration, Hagle is preoccupied with Iowa’s No Party voters.
No Party voters once outnumbered those registered with the two major parties, but more than 60,000 No Party voters identified as either Democratic or Republican as part of Iowa’s automatic absentee ballot request process, introduced because of the COVID-19 outbreak, Hagle said. And Republicans recorded registration gains through the move.
“It’s hard to say how loyal those former No Party voters will be to their new party, but the voters who remain No Party are still about a third of Iowa’s registered voters and are probably even more likely to be the swing voters who decide elections in Iowa,” he said.
In 2016, Trump earned about 47% of the No Party vote compared to Clinton’s 30%, Hagle continued. Those Iowans were “mostly folks who were tired of the politics and were willing to take a chance on Trump.” They were motivated, too, by kitchen table issues, such as the economy and healthcare.
“Democrats have been hitting Trump hard on the pandemic response, so maybe that’s had an effect on support for the president,” he said. “On the other hand, lots of people were hurt by the lockdowns associated with the response and are eager to open up again. That makes it a little hard to determine which way these swing voters will go.”
After months of worrying about Biden’s lack of travel plans, Democrats are now also concerned he’s being dispatched to the wrong states. Clinton, with the benefit of hindsight, was criticized for her emphasis on reach states at the expense of the stretch of “blue wall” constructed around Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
For prominent Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, Biden’s visit to the state Friday demonstrates the competitiveness of the upper Midwest. And the same can be said of the Trump campaign’s swings, including a trip by Vice President Mike Pence.
“It’s a sign of Trump’s weakness that Pence will also be here this week to defend a state he won handily in 2016,” Link told the Washington Examiner. “Biden’s focus on rural voters, rebuilding the rural economy, and taking a more active role in curbing the pandemic all help here in the Midwest.”
Top Biden spokeswoman Kate Bedingfield added Tuesday the nominee’s forays into expansion states, such as Florida and Georgia, were simply “additive.”
“What we’re doing in this final week is we are keeping as many paths to 270 open as we possibly can,” she said of the electoral math.
