At the center of President Trump’s reelection campaign is a simple message: America is back and ready to turn the page on the coronavirus and its economic fallout.
“Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back,” Trump declared at a White House event on Friday. This is usually the argument an incumbent president makes during an economic boom or a victory over a great national challenge. Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” reelection theme came after stagflation was whipped and the economy was growing at 6.8%.
Trump is making this argument while the coronavirus still rages, and, as he acknowledged, there is no vaccine. Some 36 million people in the United States are out of work. Trump is appealing to his past economic success, promising that things are going to be better in the near future and that he is the man who can make it happen.
It’s an approach that served Trump well in business as he battled through bankruptcies and setbacks, but it is a risky reelection strategy. Nevertheless, it could work.
Trump is down but not out. His approval ratings remain steady, ranging from a high of 51% in a recent Hill/Harris poll to a low of 42% in one from Politico/Morning Consult. Trump is currently tying his previous high of 49% in Gallup and is averaging 46.2% nationally, even with the country facing serious problems. He’s barely behind where Barack Obama was at a similar point in his own reelection race in 2012.
A CNN poll found Trump down 51%-46% to former Vice President Joe Biden nationally but leading him 52%-45% in the battleground states. Trump also edged Biden 50%-46% among independents. Usual caveats about margins of error and sample sizes apply, but these are not terrible numbers amid a pandemic and high unemployment.
“As of now, the race could go either way. I think Biden has gained in the past month as Trump’s job approval has come down a bit,” said Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak. “However, huge questions remain about Biden’s capacity, about the Tara Reade allegations, and about the enthusiasm deficit. Trump will regain his strength as the economy reopens. This race won’t really settle until Labor Day. The key for Trump is to make this a choice election for who can lead us back to a strong American economy. This election will be decided by Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”
Trump hasn’t succeeded in rallying the country around his coronavirus leadership, which is why he is currently trailing, but he has held his base, which has kept him in striking distance of Biden.
“The massive negative impact on the mortality numbers and the skyrocketing unemployment rate have not impacted President Trump’s standing with his base of core supporters,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “Many Americans haven’t heard or seen Joe Biden since the crisis began and think that Trump is really trying to solve this unforeseen crisis. If anyone does see Biden, he does not deliver concise messaging that penetrates through the noise of the pandemic coverage to Americans stuck at home. The trend is moving in Trump’s direction, but what really matters is how people are feeling in October.”
Trump hopes that by then, people will be feeling optimistic. “The transition is the third quarter,” Trump said at an economic reopening event in Pennsylvania on Thursday. “The fourth quarter is going to do very well. And next year is going to be through the roof.”
He better be right. Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has opened up a 4.5-point lead nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, without venturing outside his basement. Biden is also performing well in polls taken in the swing states that will determine who wins the Electoral College, threatening to turn the Rust Belt, crucial to Trump’s 2016 upset victory, blue again.
“We are pulling ahead in Florida, in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, and in Arizona,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters. “If we kept these numbers, and we kept them through November, that would put us at 318 electoral votes.”
Biden and the Democrats hope to make this election a referendum on Trump’s tweets, temperament, coronavirus management, and the current state of the economy. That puts the onus on Trump to make Biden’s record a factor in voters’ choices and make his own economic pitch for the future.
