Republican voters are less concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, offering President Trump some measure of political cover as the November elections approach amid an accelerating public health crisis that is pushing the economy toward recession.
Approximately 40% of self-identified Republicans fear that an acquaintance or family member might contract COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, compared to a whopping two-thirds of Democratic voters, according to public opinion polls conducted this month. This lopsided partisan split, which holds across several issues related to the pandemic, could help Trump weather the political fallout as nearly every aspect of American society grind to a screeching halt.
“Republicans are solidly sticking by him,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. “They’re not going to be affected by whatever happens with the coronavirus pandemic.”
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The effects of the coronavirus pandemic on life in the United States, and around the world, are fast-moving and evolving, and voter attitudes are hard to predict. But in poll after poll over the past couple of weeks, Republican voters have proven more resistant than Democrats to the concept that this is a dangerous crisis necessitating drastic changes in public behavior.
In a national survey by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, conducted March 11–13, just 40% of Republicans worried a family member might catch the coronavirus, compared to 68% of Democrats. Meanwhile, just 40% of Republicans believe “the worst is yet to come,” compared to 79% of Democrats. Additionally, just 30% of Republicans said they were stopping, or planning to stop, large gatherings, compared to 61% of Democrats.
In a March 11–14 survey of Arizona voters from Monmouth University, 41% of Republicans were “less concerned about a family member getting ill from COVID-19” compared to the 75% of Democrats, who acknowledged similar fears. A GOP pollster said that Republican voters, at least, appear to view the coronavirus pandemic through the same partisan lens that has influenced their opinions of other major national events during the Trump presidency.
“It is shocking how partisan this thing is — it’s tribalism at its peak,” the GOP pollster said. “In crass political terms, that’s good news for Trump.”
The president’s average job approval rating over the past couple of weeks is 44.5%, the higher end of his range over the course of his tenure. He appears to have found his footing in dealing with the coronavirus after initially dismissing the severity of the crisis. However, Trump has come under heavy fire from Democrats, and independents give him mixed reviews.
Nonpartisan pollsters say the politics of the pandemic are difficult to gauge.
“I’ve never lived through pandemic like this — anybody who is predicting this is taking wild guesses,” said Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University poll. Tim Malloy, a top analyst for Quinnipiac University’s survey, said he is curious to see how Trump’s approval looks later in March. Explained Malloy: “The one thing we can say is, we don’t [yet] have any linkage” between the coronavirus and Trump’s job approval.
At least one GOP consultant worried that Trump could be blinded to the problem by his uncommonly loyal base. “Independents are going to count in a big way in November,” this Republican insider said. “If they believe he’s downplaying a serious crisis, he’s in trouble.”
