DES MOINES, Iowa — For presidential candidates, Iowa is about managing expectations, and with only one week before the 2024 Republican primary‘s kickoff caucus, this cycle’s campaigns are attempting to offload pressure onto their rivals.
But as both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley contend Iowa is more important to the other as they race for second place, former President Donald Trump is hoping to dominate on Jan. 15 while encouraging his supporters not to be complacent.
Iowa is the first step toward the Republican nomination for DeSantis as his campaign pushes that the Hawkeye State has increased in significance for Haley, though she has a path through more centrist New Hampshire.
The former U.N. ambassador has continued to close in on DeSantis in Iowa polls following the GOP primary debates and as she and her supporters, including Koch Industries-funded Americans for Prosperity, spend millions before the first-in-the-nation caucuses to help her and hinder him.
“Donald Trump and Nikki Haley’s own chest-thumping has shifted all of the Iowa pressure into their camps as we head down the final stretch,” DeSantis campaign communications director Andrew Romeo told the Washington Examiner. “That’s because Trump has already declared victory by a 40-point margin, and Haley and her establishment funders are publicly guaranteeing a bought-and-paid-for second-place finish for their $70 million investment.”
Still, DeSantis has also sunk a notable amount of resources into the state, redirecting most of his resources to Iowa last year as part of a campaign reset, and is the only candidate of Trump and Haley who has traveled to all of the state’s 99 counties and earned the endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA).
His schedule, including events hosted by his super PAC Never Back Down, has been more hectic than Trump’s and Haley’s since the start of 2024, and likely caucusgoers report experiencing being contacted more in-person by his team compared to his opponents, though his competitors complain that his field staff are paid.
“In every corner of the Hawkeye State, it is only Ron DeSantis who is shaking hands with Iowa Republicans and answering their tough, unscripted questions,” DeSantis deputy campaign manager David Polyansky said. “He is also spending time rallying alongside his historic volunteer caucus turnout organization.”
Regardless, one week before the caucuses, DeSantis is, on average, more than 30 percentage points behind Trump and has a slight 2.5-point edge on Haley, with 18.5% of the vote, according to RealClearPolitics. In New Hampshire, he is in third place, trailing Trump, Haley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with 9.5%. Meanwhile, Trump has a 20-plus point lead on Haley.
“Ron DeSantis has spent $150 million to lose half his support,” Haley spokeswoman AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said. “Now he’s desperate because his Iowa-or-bust operation is belly-up. Nikki Haley is competing in all three early states and expects to have a strong performance.”
After the Council Bluffs stop of DeSantis’s Countdown to Caucus tour last week, DeSantis precinct caucus captain Marie Andersen, 76, downplayed the governor’s polling because “people don’t answer their phones” when pollsters call.
“The whole caucus process is so different. It’s who shows up and what they decide,” the Council Bluffs retired healthcare recruiter said at a local bar and grill. “A lot of people that are Trump supporters might think, ‘Oh, he’s going to make it anyway, so I won’t go. I’m tired tonight.’ Or, ‘I have something going on.’ Or, ‘It’s cold outside or dark outside.’ And they might just think, ‘Well, maybe I won’t go out.'”
Trump and his campaign, including his son Eric Trump in an interview with the Washington Examiner, have been underscoring how the record for a margin of victory in Iowa is 12 points, with the former president imploring his supporters to participate and not watch what happens on television.
Gary Leffler, a Trump precinct caucus captain, dismissed the idea Trump could have a complacency problem, but after a smaller get-out-the-vote event last weekend with the former president at a Newton community college, the 62-year-old conceded the weather could be problematic.
“It’s a concern not only with him, but with all the other candidates,” the West Des Moines contractor said. “It’s supposed to be a 10-degree night on Jan. 15 and really getting people and making sure that they get out there and caucus. I know I’m a precinct caucus captain, but I know that that’s a challenge for everybody.”
At a larger Trump rally last weekend in Mason City, Mike Lindell, the CEO of MyPillow, was similarly confident about Trump’s prospects, predicting the former president would win the caucuses in “a landslide” because his supporters know “no lead is safe.”
“It’s a joke. The other ones shouldn’t have even ran against him,” he said at the North Iowa Events Center. “When he calls me after another indictment or whatever, I go, ‘Sir, you’re polling up again. I said, ‘You’re going to end up with more votes than voters.'”
Bob Sherman, 68, who was in Mason City too, admitted Trump is not “a perfect candidate,” but described him as “the best candidate.”
“The other day one of the politicians was on the news in a restaurant with a handful of people around him,” the Clear Lake semi-retiree said. “We’re standing here. People stood in line for hours in cold weather. It won’t be close, let’s put it that way. You’re not going to have any trouble figuring out who won.”
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In Keokuk, Matthew Jacobe, who drove three hours last week with his wife to see Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) support Trump, cited President Joe Biden when asked why he anticipated “a large turnout” next Monday.
“I feel like a lot of us Americans are just tired of this, the crap right now,” the St. Charles small-business owner, 40, said. “The inflation, high gas prices, the food costs are outrageous. I think everybody wants a change. We know what it was like when [Trump] was in the office. A lot of us had pretty nice bank accounts and now, I mean, you’ve had to spend your savings and everything just to stay afloat.”
