The Congressional Budget Office is reportedly considering changing the way that it evaluates the impact of repealing Obamacare’s individual mandate, which Republicans suspect would show less government savings and fewer people becoming uninsured as a results.
News of the possibility was first reported on Twitter by Peter Sullivan, a healthcare reporter for the Hill. Sullivan reported that the information came from Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., who co-authored a bill that would have overhauled Obamacare.
CBO has changed its model to now show that repealing indiv mandate now saves a lot less and less coverage loss, per Cassidy
— Peter Sullivan (@PeterSullivan4) November 7, 2017
CBO spokeswoman Deborah Kilroe said she did not have guidance to offer on whether the agency was considering changing its methodology.
The individual mandate is one of the most unpopular parts of Obamacare. It requires people to buy health insurance or pay a fine. Proponents say it is necessary to bring healthier enrollees into insurer pools to help distribute the costs of more expensive enrollees, while opponents say it has failed to achieve that goal.
Previous analyses of the individual mandate repeal, during GOP efforts to undo portions of Obamacare, found it would result in 15 million fewer people having health insurance coverage and a reduction of $400 billion in government spending. Those results would occur because the federal government would be paying for fewer people to receive subsidies under Obamacare’s exchanges and for fewer people to be enrolled in the Medicaid program.
During the debate over repealing Obamacare, Republicans often dismissed the CBO’s projections, calling them unreliable.
It is not clear if any change will be made, what it would contain or when it would occur. It’s possible that the change is related to President Trump’s decision to end insurer payments known as cost-sharing reduction subsidies.
Republicans are hoping to pass a tax bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, by Thanksgiving. The current version of the bill doesn’t include repeal of the individual mandate but some conservatives hope the bill will be amended to include it.
Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., who has been one of the most vocal advocates of including repeal of the individual mandate in the tax bill, has touted the savings that would come as a result. His team said it is confident that the scoring will include similar numbers to previous reports.
“We’re confident the CBO estimate will still show a substantial — north of $300 billion — savings for tax reform,” Caroline Tabler, spokeswoman for Cotton, said in an email.
CBO has been criticized for years for its analyses on the effects of the individual mandate. Republicans have charged that the mandate isn’t as effective as CBO concludes and have said they want to see it repealed. Some Obamacare supporters also have said it should be stronger by becoming more expensive or should be more heavily enforced.
