Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s Democratic challenger has a narrow edge on the incumbent six weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll.
Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Ernst by 3 percentage points in their Senate race among likely voters, 45% to 42%, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll published Saturday found. Another 3% told pollsters they intended to vote for someone else, 2% said they wouldn’t cast a ballot at all, and 7% said they were still making up their mind.
A majority of respondents also told pollsters they believed Ernst hadn’t done enough in Congress to help her constituents, while her favorability-unfavorability rating was 44%-44% compared to Greenfield’s 40%-36%.
The survey was taken just before the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, which could alter the White House race. President Trump has pledged to name a replacement for Ginsburg in the coming days, which could have the practical effect of cementing a 6-3 conservative majority.
Although Greenfield’s advantage is a small one, she’s consistently polled ahead of the first-term U.S. senator, former state senator, and ex-Iowa Army National Guard lieutenant colonel.
A previous Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted in June had Greenfield, a businesswoman and political novice, in front 46% to 43%. On average, though, Greenfield leads by 0.3 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
With Democrats only needing a gain of three or four seats to clinch control of the Senate, the Iowa contest has become one of the country’s most expensive. Advertising Analytics told the Des Moines Register $155.5 million in TV, radio, and digital ads had already been reserved before the Nov. 3 election.
Saturday’s poll was fielded among 658 likely Iowa voters from Sept. 14-17 via live landline and cellphone interviews. Its findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
